Karnataka polls: Congress eyeing chinks in BJP's loyal Lingayat support base

BENGALURU: Six districts of Kittur Karnataka*, as Mumbai-Karnataka has been renamed, account for 50 or 22% of the 224 seats in the Karnataka assembly and play a major role in deciding which party governs the state.
With chief minister Basavaraj Bommai hailing from the region, the ruling BJP is making an all-out bid to win as many seats as possible from here so that it has a majority on its own. Both in 2008 and 2018, Kittur Karnataka's support alone was not enough for BJP to make it to power on its own and the saffron party had to pull off defections from other parties under what it called 'Operation Kamala'.

Lingayat community is the most dominant in the region as can be seen in their representation: 32 MLAs. The others include 7 SCs, 3 STs, 2 Kurubas, 4 Marathas and one each from Jain and Raddi communities.
BJP's good performance in 2008 and 20018 was not a surprise given the support it enjoys among Lingayats and the RSS spread in the region. The 2013 Congress gains had to do with BS Yediyurappa and B Sriramulu moving away from BJP and fielding candidates from their own parties.
The region is set to see a direct fight between Congress and BJP with JD(S) still struggling to make inroads. While BJP still counts Lingayats as its loyal voters, Yediyurappa, who was considered the party's Lingayat mascot, is not directly in the fray. But BJP hopes that Bommai and increased quota for Lingayats will ensure that the community stays by it.
Lack of industries, bad roads, frequent floods caused by Malaprabha and Krishna rivers, failure to implement and lacunae in (Upper Krishna Project) UKnd and 3rd phase implementation are main issues dogging the region.
BJP is hoping that the central clearance for the Kalasa-Banduri project, which is proposed to get drinking water to the region, will nip any discontent among farmers.
With Dalit, Muslim and OBC votes also crucial in deciding the fate of candidates, Congress is looking to tap into the unrest among some communities like Muslims and Banjaras over the recent reservation matrix.
"Anti-incumbency factor, corruption, and failure of BJP to meet needs of farmers and other basic needs of common man will help Congress win more seats. More candidates from dominant communities will be fielded to draw their votes," said Shakir Sanadi, general secretary, KPCC.
Mahesh Tenginkai, state BJP general secretary, said: "Booth Vijaya Abhiyana, Vijaya Sankalpa Yatre and the achievement of BJP governments at the Centre and the state are a big boost for the party to win a good number of seats. Besides, the increase in reservation for Lingayats will definitely benefit the party in winning more than 35 seats in this region."
The Aam Aadmi Party is focusing on the region this time by adopting innovative strategies to reach out to voters in at least 5-6 seats.
(*This analysis does not cover Uttara Kannada district which is part of the region)