No idea, how big new COVID surge would be but…, expert flags amid XBB.1.16 rise
2 min read . Updated: 10 Apr 2023, 04:58 PM IST
Premium- However, XBB.1.16 is not more pathogenic than other Omicron's progenies, expert said
The emergence of the XBB.1.16 variant has created a new surge in COVID cases in the country for almost 6 months. Several experts have earlier cautioned about the variant and World Health Organisation has also called it a ‘variant to watch’.
Vipin M Vashishtha, former convenor of Indian Academy of Pediatrics and consultant paediatrician at the Mangla Hospital and Research Centre, Bijnor, who has been one of the first experts to flag this variant, pointed out ‘amid an ongoing surge, it’s time to take a stock of the situation: what we do know, what we don’t about the variant’.
Accordingly, in a series of tweets, the expert lists known and unknown traits of the variant. Check here:
What we know for sure:
The emergence of the XBB.1.16 variant in India has created a new surge in COVID-19 cases after a gap of more than six months.
This variant has succeeded in achieving a feat that even other variants like BA.5, BQ.1, and XBB.1.5 failed to achieve. XBB.1.16 has replaced some other similar sublineages like XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.9 and has a growth advantage over other circulating XBB variants.
However, it is not more pathogenic than other Omicron's progenies.
XBB.1.16 is still evolving, and it is adding a few more mutations. However, not all new mutations are beneficial to the virus.
The chances of XBB.1.16 leading a new significant wave akin to the Jan'22 BA.2 wave are remote
Now, what we do not know about the new variant:
How big this new surge would be?
What are the key factors responsible for making XBB.1.16 a more fitter variant than its contemporaries? Higher immune evasion?
Citing a few studies, the expert pointed out, the XBB.1.16 variant of COVID-19 is believed to have higher infectiousness than the XBB.1.5 variant, but not significantly greater immune evasion. While XBB.1.16 has similar entry into cells as other variants, its increased fitness is thought to be mainly due to mutations in the non-Spike region, particularly ORF1a:L3829F and NSP6 of ORF1ab.
Experts believe that extra mutations at ORF9b and ORF1a may also contribute to its fitness by suppressing the innate immune system. While it is still unclear whether XBB.1.16 will become globally dominant, projections suggest it is likely. The XBB.1.16 variant is a reminder of the ongoing evolution of the virus and the importance of continued monitoring and adaptation to mitigate its spread.