Kyrsten Sinema's Chances of Beating Democrat Challenger, According to Polls

Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema is reportedly planning to run for reelection as an independent, raising questions about the future of the Democrats' majority in the Senate.

On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported it had obtained a slide deck from Sinema's campaign laying out a timeline for a reelection bid, setting the stage for what many believe would be an unpredictable three-way race in 2024.

Newsweek could not independently confirm the slides. But according to the report, Sinema already has a well-thought-out strategy for victory. (Reached for comment by Newsweek via email, Sinema's office declined to confirm or comment on the report.)

Though Sinema believes she has aisle-crossing appeal that could deliver her a victory, polling shows the exact opposite. Strategists in the Democratic Party have already suggested her presence in a three-way race will only serve to divide the liberal vote, experts told Newsweek shortly after she defected from the party.

But Sinema—who announced her departure from the Democratic Party amid disastrous polling numbers within her party in 2022—reportedly sees a path to reelection, according to the Journal's report. That path relies on a coalition of loyal Democratic voters and a sizable share of independents and moderate Republicans in the battleground state. Those Republicans and Democrats, she believes, have been turned off by the more extreme elements in their parties.

Whether the math is in place to deliver her a victory is another question. A registered independent, she currently caucuses primarily as a Democrat in Congress, but many observers say she would largely divide the Democratic vote against a unified GOP.

While Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters lost to moderate Democrat Mark Kelly in Arizona by nearly 5 points last November, Governor Katie Hobbes only narrowly squeaked past far-right candidate Kari Lake in her bid for the governor's mansion, opening the floor for either party to gain an advantage in the state in 2024.

Long a right-leaning state, Arizona went to the Democrats in a presidential race for the first time in decades, thanks to Joe Biden's 2020 victory there, though his margin of victory was fewer than 11,000 votes. And while Sinema flipped a Senate seat blue in Arizona for the first time since 1988 with her 2018 victory, she won by just 2.5 percent against a candidate with close ties to Donald Trump.

Sinema is expected to face stiff competition to keep her seat. Lake has already suggested she has ambitions for national office and has not ruled out a Senate bid in 2024. And NBC News reported on Friday that Pinal County's Republican sheriff, Mark Lamb, plans to run for the Senate that year.

Meanwhile, Sinema's votes on GOP initiatives like maintaining the Senate filibuster—which resulted in a censure motion from the Arizona Democratic Party—and opposition to a $15 minimum wage during the COVID-19 emergency have poisoned the party's base against her. Arizona Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego was quick to launch a bid against her, as Newsweek first reported earlier this year.

While Sinema has sought to court Republicans and independents by breaking with the party line over the Biden administration's handling of the U.S.-Mexico border issue, most polls show Sinema's presence in the race only works to Gallego's detriment in a race against a candidate like Lake.

In one of Sinema's best-case scenarios—a December poll by Normington, Petts and Associates on behalf of the Replace Sinema PAC—the embattled senator earns just one-quarter of the popular vote, with Gallego and a candidate such as Lake tying at 36 percent.

Other polling, by OH Predictive Insights, on a hypothetical two-way race between Gallego and candidates like Lake and Masters shows the Democrat with a 10-point lead right out of the gate.

The most sobering assessment for Democrats currently available is a December poll by Public Policy Polling. In a head-to-head battle, Gallego polled slightly better than Lake, edging past her by 1 percent. But with Sinema involved, Gallego loses by 1 percent, with Sinema taking a near-equal share of votes from both candidates.