Tata Motors, SBI, ICICI Bank, ONGC, BPCL: 5 Nifty cos may contribute 82% of incremental growth in Q4 earnings!

Automobile, banking and oil & gas sectors look set to lead growth in March quarter, with five stocks namely Tata Motors, State Bank of India (SBI), ICICI Bank, ONGC and BPCL contributing 82 per cent of the year-on-year incremental growth in March quarter Nifty earnings.

SBI is seen accounting for 27 per cent of YoY incremental rise in profit, BPCL 22 per cent, Tata Motors 14 per cent, ICICI Bank 10 per cent and ONGC 9 per cent, Motilal Oswal Securities said in a note.

"Aggregate earnings will be lopsided with five companies within Nifty (SBI, ICICI Bank, BPCL, ONGC and Tata Motors) accounting for 82 per cent of the incremental YoY accretion in earnings. Sixteen companies are likely to report PAT growth of above 30 per cent YoY. Ten Nifty companies are expected to report a YoY decline in PAT," the brokerage said in a note.

For SBI, Kotak sees 74 per cent YoY jump in profit at Rs 15,890 crore on 25 per cent YoY jump in net interest income (NII) at Rs 38,856 crore. Motilal Oswal, on the other hand, pegs profit growth for the quarter at 66.6 per cent.

"We expect a operating profit growth of 25 per cent YoY led by strong NII growth. We are building 25 per cent YoY NII growth on the back of 15 per cent YoY loan growth. We are building stable NIM but do see a possibility of a small expansion given the structure of loan book and negligible need for deposits to fund this growth," Kotak said. The brokerage expects SBI slippages at 1.5 per cent of loans, mostly driven by SME and retail.

BPCL's numbers may be lifted by over-recoveries and resilient refining margin. Kotak Institutional Equities expects the OMC to report profit at Rs 4,628 crore, up 117 per cent YoY (136 per cent QoQ) over Rs 2,130.50 crore in the year-ago quarter. Sales is seen rising 4 per cent YoY (down 5 per cent sequential) to Rs 1,12,757.60 from Rs 1,08,773.60 crore in the year-ago quarter. Emkay Global sees BPCL's profit at Rs 3,824 crore, up 79.5 per cent YoY. Motilal Oswal sees profit for the OMC soaring 201.5 per cent YoY to Rs 7,187.70 crore on a 1.8 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 10,596 crore.

In the case of Tata Motors, Motilal Oswal expects the JLR owner to report a profit of Rs 2,711.30 crore against losses in the year-ago quarter. Sales for the Tata group company are seen rising 24.4 per cent YoY to Rs 97,550 crore. India business performance remains healthy, led by strong

growth in PVs and CVs, while JLR volumes may grow YoY due to easing chip shortages and continued traction toward new models.

Prabhudas Lilladher estimates ONGC's profit at Rs 11,411 crore, up 28.8 per cent YoY. Stable crude oil and gas realisation will keep earnings healthy, it said while expecting volume growth for the quarter to be muted. This brokerage sees sales for ONGC rising 6 per cent YoY to Rs 36,567 crore.

For ICICI Bank, PhillipCapital sees profit rising 26.4 per cent to Rs 8,869 crore on 36.5 per cent YoY rise in NII at Rs 17,199 crore. NIM is seen expanding to 4.70 per cent from 4.65 per cent in Decemberand 4 per cent in the year-ago quarter. Motilal Oswal Securities pegs ICICI Bank's profit at Rs 9,155.50 crore, up 30.4 per cent YoY.

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