Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: April 6, 2023
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Weekly Commentary: With shocking SAG winner Sam Elliott (“1883”) not eligible for this year’s Emmy Awards, a tight race of acclaimed actors is vying for Emmy recognition.
Evan Peters has long been considered the front-runner for his work as serial killer Jeffrey Dahmer in Ryan Murphy’s hit Netflix series “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story.” However, the joy and talents of Daniel Radcliffe are being celebrated with his performance in “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story,” a parody of the legendary musician. New to the Emmy landscape, The Roku Channel is putting all its available resources into ensuring the movie, which premiered in Toronto last September, isn’t forgotten.
We also can’t count out Jesse Plemons, two years after his first Oscar nomination for “The Power of the Dog” (2021), he’ll be a potential spoiler for his portrayal of Allan Gore, who begins an affair with Candy Montgomery (played by Elizabeth Olsen) in HBO’s “Love & Death.”
We shouldn’t count out Michael Shannon, who could be a packaged deal with his co-star Jessica Chastain for “George & Tammy” and Steve Carell, who’s easily the standout performer in FX’s “The Patient.”
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Evan Peters — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Daniel Radcliffe — “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel)
- Jesse Plemons — “Love & Death” (HBO)
- Taron Egerton — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- Michael Shannon — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
Next in Line
- Steve Carell — “The Patient” (Hulu)
- Justin Theroux — “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
- Ben Whishaw — “This is Going to Hurt” (AMC)
- Woody Harrelson — “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
- Jesse Eisenberg — “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Ewan McGregor — “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
- Sam Claflin — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Trevante Rhodes — “Mike” (Hulu)
- Joel Kim Booster — “Fire Island” (Hulu)
- Kumail Nanjiani — “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
- Fionn Whitehead — “Great Expectations” (Hulu)
- Nikolaj Coster-Waldau — “The Last Thing He Told Me” (Apple TV+)
- Andy Garcia — “Father of the Bride” (HBO)
- Sylvester Stallone — “Samaritan” (Prime Video)
- Josh Duhamel — “Shotgun Wedding” (Prime Video)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
- Josh Groban — “Beauty and the Beast: A 30th Celebration” (ABC)
- Ben Whishaw — “This is Going to Hurt” (AMC)
- Taron Egerton — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- Nikolaj Coster-Waldau — “The Last Thing He Told Me” (Apple TV+)
- Patrick Dempsey — “Disenchanted” (Disney+)
- Tom Hanks — “Disney’s Pinocchio” (Disney+)
- Ewan McGregor — “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
- Jesse Eisenberg — “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
- Andy Garcia — “Father of the Bride” (HBO)
- Jesse Plemons — “Love & Death” (HBO)
- Woody Harrelson — “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
- Justin Theroux — “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
- Joel Kim Booster — “Fire Island” (Hulu)
- Fionn Whitehead — “Great Expectations” (Hulu)
- Trevante Rhodes — “Mike” (Hulu)
- Steve Carell — “The Patient” (Hulu)
- Kumail Nanjiani — “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
- Liev Schreiber — “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
- Evan Peters — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Eugenio Mastrandrea — “From Scratch” (Netflix)
- Bobby Cannavale — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Gaten Matarazzo — “Honor Society” (Paramount+)
- Bryan Cranston — “Jerry and Marge Go Large” (Paramount+)
- Thomas Lennon — “Reno 911: It’s a Wonderful Heist” (Paramount+)
- Colin Hanks — “A Friend of the Family” (Peacock)
- Jake Lacy — “A Friend of the Family” (Peacock)
- Matthew Fox — “Last Light” (Peacock)
- Pete Davidson — “Meet Cute” (Peacock)
- Sam Claflin — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Chaske Spencer — “The English” (Prime Video)
- Ben Platt — “The People We Hate at the Wedding” (Prime Video)
- Sylvester Stallone — “Samaritan” (Prime Video)
- Josh Duhamel — “Shotgun Wedding” (Prime Video)
- Jay Ellis — “Somebody I Used to Know” (Prime Video)
- Kendrick Sampson — “Something from Tiffany’s” (Prime Video)
- Daniel Radcliffe — “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel)
- Michael Shannon — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Michael Keaton, “Dopesick” (Hulu)
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | VARIETY SKETCH, SERIES, SPECIALS |
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTING, VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.