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More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Verde AgriTech Ltd's (TSE:NPK) Shares After Tumbling 54%

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Verde AgriTech Ltd (TSE:NPK) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 54% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 59% share price decline.

Although its price has dipped substantially, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Verde AgriTech's P/E ratio of 9x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Canada is also close to 11x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Verde AgriTech certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. The P/E is probably moderate because investors think this strong earnings growth might not be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Verde AgriTech

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Although there are no analyst estimates available for Verde AgriTech, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Verde AgriTech's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 391%. However, the latest three year period hasn't been as great in aggregate as it didn't manage to provide any growth at all. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 8.5% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

With this information, we find it interesting that Verde AgriTech is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Bottom Line On Verde AgriTech's P/E

Following Verde AgriTech's share price tumble, its P/E is now hanging on to the median market P/E. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Verde AgriTech currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Verde AgriTech (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to take into consideration.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Verde AgriTech, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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