Asia Stocks, Europe Futures Rise as Banks Rebound: Markets Wrap
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(Bloomberg) -- Asian equities climbed along with European futures while the dollar traded lower as fears of broader contagion from the banking turmoil eased.
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A gauge of Asian shares climbed about 0.8%, with benchmark indexes rising in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Australia. Contracts for US stocks also showed small gains.
Traders have been cautiously inching toward a risk-on posture as jitters in the banking sector subside. Financial firms were among the best performers in Asia on Tuesday and looked set to snap a two-day loss. Finance stocks led the way on Wall Street on Monday, while energy producers gained as well. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 ended the session 0.7% lower, capping a two-week advance.
The two-year Treasury yield slipped back below the 4% level in Asia trading after surging 23 basis points Monday. Sentiment from the US session flowed across to trading in Australia and New Zealand, where rates on government debt climbed.
A gauge of dollar strength fell for a second day. The yen strengthened after Japan’s cabinet approved the use of some funds from the fiscal 2022 budget for measures to cushion the impact of inflation.
Meanwhile, swaps traders priced in about a 50% probability that the Federal Reserve will lift rates by a quarter point at its next gathering. They continue to expect sharp easing thereafter, with pricing suggesting the policy rate will slide to around 4.2% in December, down from around 4.9% in May.
Not all agree.
“We see major central banks moving away from a ‘whatever it takes’ approach, stopping their hikes and entering a more nuanced phase that’s less about a relentless fight against inflation but still one where they can’t cut rates,” strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute, including Wei Li and Alex Brazier, wrote in a note.
Some investors in the market remain on the lookout for signals of a recession later this year as the Fed and other central banks could be forced to implement higher-for-longer rate hikes to tame inflation.
JPMorgan’s chief strategist Marko Kolanovic said the first quarter “will likely mark the high point for equities this year,” recommending investors stay defensive in a research note.
“We view the most vulnerable areas as unprofitable companies that depend on steady flow of equity capital to fund operations and tight carry trades implemented over the last 10 to 20 years,” Kolanovic wrote.
One of Wall Street’s most prominent bears, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson was also cautious on stocks, saying earnings estimates and valuations need to come down.
Elsewhere in markets, Asian shares related to digital currencies fell in the wake of Bitcoin’s drop. The token fell 2.7% Monday after the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Binance Holdings Ltd. for allegedly breaking trading and derivatives rules. Bitcoin dropped slightly on Tuesday.
Oil steadied after posting the biggest daily rally since October when it rose by around 5% on Monday. Gold fluctuated.
Key events this week:
US wholesale inventories, US Conf. Board consumer confidence, Tuesday
EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report, Wednesday
Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Thursday
US GDP, initial jobless claims, Thursday
Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks at event. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also speaks, Thursday
China PMI, Friday
Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Friday
US consumer income, PCE deflator, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Friday
New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% as of 2:17 p.m. Tokyo time. The S&P 500 rose 0.2%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%
Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.4%
Japan’s Topix index rose 0.2%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.9%
China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 1%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0810
The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 130.52 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8825 per dollar
The Australian dollar rose 0.6% to $0.6692
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $26,950.5
Ether rose 0.7% to $1,719.11
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.51%
Australia’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 3.29%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
Spot gold was little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
--With assistance from Jason Scott.
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