Republicans' Warning About Trump Indictment Coming True

• Republican warnings that an indictment will help Trump's 2024 odds appear to be coming true, as polls have shown his support increasing compared to his closest Republican rivals.
• At the same time, Trump's most formidable 2024 challenger, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has not announced yet if he's running for president, has dipped in support in recent polls.
• Trump's campaign spokesperson has said the operation is ready to deal with anything that comes their way.

Republican warnings that a possible indictment will actually help Donald Trump's 2024 presidential odds could be coming true, polls show.

Surveys conducted this week show that the former president is experiencing a surge in support amid reports that an arrest related to the hush money payment allegedly made to adult film star Stormy Daniels is imminent.

The former president is being investigated by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office for $130,000 that was paid to Daniels by his former attorney Michael Cohen ahead of the 2016 presidential election to keep secret an affair that Daniels claims she had with Trump in 2006. Over the course of the investigation, Trump has repeatedly asserted his innocence, has denied the affair between him and Daniels, and called on his supporters to protest against the possible indictment.

A survey conducted by Harvard CAPS/Harris between March 22 and 23 found Trump had increased his standing as the leading contender for the 2024 Republican primary, with 50 percent of GOP support, compared to his closest GOP rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who received 24 percent. DeSantis, however, has not officially declared his White House bid, but has hinted that he will run in 2024.

In a head-to-head matchup, Trump scored even better against DeSantis, receiving 56 percent to the governor's 44 percent. In another hypothetical matchup against former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who has announced her candidacy for the presidential election, Trump received 70 percent of support compared to Haley's 30 percent.

Last weekend, Trump said on Truth Social that he was anticipating an arrest as early as this past Tuesday. Although no decision has been made in the case yet, Republicans—both those in the former president's corner and some of his most prominent GOP critics—have speculated that an indictment will only help Trump's chances of being elected back into the White House.

"If DA Alvin Bragg brings this case, it will not only serve to coalesce President Trump's support, but it will become the single largest in-kind contribution to a federal campaign in political history," Taylor Budowich, a former Trump spokesman who is now head of the Make America Great Again PAC, said in a Sunday statement.

Prosecutors claim that the payment made to Daniels might be considered a campaign violation and also found that the Trump Organization documented the reimbursement to Cohen as legal expenses. It is against state law in New York for companies to misclassify the nature of expenses. This could lead to a misdemeanor charge for Trump, which might later become a felony if the misclassification took place in order to cover up another crime.

Republican New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, whose criticized Trump in the past, also told CNN over the weekend that a Trump arrest could fuel "a lot of sympathy for the former president."

A 2024 GOP primary tracker from Morning Consult also found that support for DeSantis, dipped, giving Trump a boost.

The latest poll analyzed by the tracker, conducted on Tuesday, shows that 54 percent of potential voters backed the former president, compared to 26 percent who picked DeSantis, putting the governor at his lowest level of support since the pollsters began tracking in December.

This week, DeSantis seemed to take a swipe at the former president when asked about a possible Trump indictment.

"I don't know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair. I can't speak to that," the governor said, before suggesting that the Manhattan district attorney was "pursing a political agenda" by targeting a Republican.

Responding to DeSantis' comments, Representative Elise Stefanik, a New York Republican, told Punchbowl News on Monday, "I think [DeSantis is] gonna see slippage in his polls. He's already seen slippage the past couple of weeks. I think you're going to see President Trump continue to solidify his position in the Republican nomination."

Trump himself has insisted that an indictment would have no impact on his third White House bid.

"This is the new normal, the president has been battle-tested," his campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told ABC News on Friday, "This operation has been fine-tuned since 2016. Dealing with these types of news cycles, you learn to get good at it. We have a full-spectrum response operation on the campaign that can deal with anything that comes our way."

Newsweek reached out to Trump's campaign by email for further comment.