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Even as global growth is set to slow down or even enter a recession in 2023 as global financial markets wager, India has emerged from the pandemic years stronger than initially thought, with a steady gathering of momentum since the second quarter of the current financial year, the Bulletin said.
“India’s real GDP can go up from ₹159.7 lakh crore in [fiscal] 2022-23 to not just ₹169.7 lakh crore in [fiscal] 2023-24 as is currently being projected, but to ₹170.9 lakh crore,” it said.
On the supply side, agriculture is into a seasonal uptick, industry is emerging out of contraction and services have maintained momentum.
In the short-term, domestic financial conditions, global conditions and domestic credit assume importance, while in the medium-term domestic credit conditions tend to be a significant determinant of lower tails of future gross domestic product (GDP) growth, an article by Saurabh Ghosh, Vidya Kamate and Ria Sonpatki in the Bulletin said.
Bank collapses in the United States in the first half of March this year are rippling through the global financial markets.
“While the direct impact of this meltdown on economic activity could be limited as it would appear at present, markets are bracing up for tighter financial conditions which could present a trade-off between financial stability concerns and the conduct of dis inflationary monetary policy. Fear is creeping back; after remaining tepid for months,” another report in the Bulletin said.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)