It may be hard to believe after all the snow and rain that fell ― and keeps falling ― on the North State this winter, but Lake Shasta water levels are still lower than normal for this time of year.

That could change with more storms on the way this week. Predictions about the amount of water released through Shasta Dam later in the year, as snow melts, could also change.

So far in 2023, the North State has had a good soaking.

January brought warm, wet storms. All told, Redding received 9.26 inches of rain that month, said meteorologist Corey Mueller at the National Weather Service in Sacramento.

February was drier, with 3.95 inches of rain, Mueller said. Then on Feb. 24, 5 inches of snow fell in the Redding area.

March rain levels are expected to surpass February's totals as more warm storms roll over western Shasta County this week. Add to that snowmelt from last Thursday's five-hour snowstorm ― 5 inches of snow fell at the Sundial Bridge ― and you've got the makings of a wet winter.

So, could it be that Shasta Dam will make history again? Will it open its gates at the top of the spillway to let water flow?

Could Shasta Dam spillways open?

More water is definitely on the way, said meteorologist Craig Shoemaker, also with the weather service. The agency predicted as much as six inches of rain last weekend through Tuesday near the dam.

But it appears the dam will surpass those totals. Shasta Dam had received 5.96 inches of rain in a 24-hour period as of 8 a.m. Tuesday, according to the California Nevada River Forecast Center.

That doesn't mean there will be enough water to go over Shasta Dam’s spillway gates as snow melts later in the year, according to Donald Bader​, area manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which operates the dam.

As of March 9, Lake Shasta was 61% full, he said, “which is still a little below average for this time of year.”

There’s plenty of space for more rainwater and snowmelt, Bader said. “We have over a 1.5-million-acre feet of storage room available for all the upcoming storms."

While the Sacramento Valley, from Lake Shasta to Sacramento, is getting a much-needed wet year, as of last week most of the rain fell south of both Trinity Dam and Shasta Dam, he said. "As a result, we have ample room for the upcoming storms and are encouraged that we're getting more storage in both reservoirs.”

While areas that drain into Lake Shasta have been drier this winter than the amount of rain and melted snow in Redding, the amount of liquid water they received this water year ― Oct. 1, 2022 to March 9 ― is still above normal, Shoemaker said. Lake Shasta received 44.74 inches of rain and melted snow. The Sims area which drains into Lake Shasta, located 10 to 15 miles north of the lake, got 54.3 inches.

“Snowpack is even better: 100% to 200% of normal,” Shoemaker said. That snow will hopefully melt slowly and trickle south down the river through the valley, reducing fire risk in late spring and summer.

Shoemaker said he expects rain and snowmelt levels in northern Shasta County, including areas that drain into Lake Shasta, to go above normal by the second half of this week.

Shasta Dam opened its spillway in 2017

The last time water went over the Shasta Dam spillway was Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2017. It was an event the public had not seen in 19 years.

From Jan. 1 to Feb. 22, 2017, the Redding area near Lake Shasta got 18.77 inches of rain and 3 inches of snow, Mueller said.

"We had 14 of 18 spillway outlet valves within the spillway open," Bader said. "The lake was 6 feet from the top."

At that time, Bader and his staff tested the overflow spillway drum gates, "which would be used if needed, to ensure they would be ready for operation if we needed to go to the next step" in flood control, he said.

That didn't happen.

"We were able to continue using the spillway outlet valves instead during" flood operations, Bader said.

At the time, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation invited local officials and members of the press to see the spillway gates open and water come gushing out.

“Very, very impressive. That’s part of history right there," said Michael Brown, then operational supervisor for the Rio Alto Water District in Cottonwood. "I’ve always been impressed with the power of water anyway."

Record Searchlight reporter Damon Arthur contributed to this story.

Jessica Skropanic is a features reporter for the Record Searchlight/USA Today Network. She covers science, arts, social issues and news stories. Follow her on Twitter @RS_JSkropanic and on Facebook. Join Jessica in the Get Out! Nor Cal recreation Facebook group. To support and sustain this work, please subscribe today. Thank you.

This article originally appeared on Redding Record Searchlight: Will Shasta Dam open spillway gates after historic California storms?