2023 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 3/12/2023 at 2:45 a.m. ET

Champ Week is here, and with it, a stretch of unpredictability and volatility unmatched in sports. Who's in? Who's out? Where is my team going? Bracketology has the answers on a daily, dynamic basis. Look for updates with each key result through Selection Sunday afternoon. We have eyes on every conference tournament, from the early-round bubble games to the determination of the top seeds in the projected NCAA field. Expect plenty of movement at both the top of the bracket and the bottom of the at-large pool. The best time of year is here.

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Bracket Watch

Selection Sunday drama will be at a minimum in the absence of any true "bid thieves" in the five remaining conference championship games. The only team on the board that could even enter the at-large conversation is VCU, but the Rams figure to fall short of an NCAA invite if they lose to Dayton in the Atlantic 10 final. Suspense will have to come at the very top of the bracket: Kansas, Alabama or Houston for the No. 1 overall seed? Purdue as the fourth top seed? Who will come out smiling from among Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Clemson and Vanderbilt? Finally, the day of answers has arrived, and the actual NCAA bracket is just about here.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (KANSAS CITY)

Des Moines

Albany

Denver

Sacramento

EAST (NEW YORK)

Columbus

Greensboro

Denver

Columbus

SOUTH (LOUISVILLE)

Birmingham

Orlando

Greensboro

Des Moines

WEST (LAS VEGAS)

Birmingham

Orlando

Albany

Sacramento

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

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RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

ESPN

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (KANSAS CITY)

Des Moines

Albany

Denver

Sacramento

EAST (NEW YORK)

Columbus

Greensboro

Denver

Columbus

SOUTH (LOUISVILLE)

Birmingham

Orlando

Greensboro

Des Moines

WEST (LAS VEGAS)

Birmingham

Orlando

Albany

Sacramento

Conference Breakdown

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