High Yield Stock Watchlist: March 2023
Summary
- There are 17 stocks on my high-yield watchlist for March 2023.
- The majority of the stocks on my watchlist are undervalued based on dividend yield theory.
- An equally weighted portfolio of these stocks would have outpaced the Vanguard High Yield Dividend ETF by about 1% year to date.
Auris/iStock via Getty Images
High Yield Watchlist Criteria
The companies listed on this watchlist are stable, with a track record of paying and raising their dividends consistently. Each of the companies on my watchlist is a large cap stock, which equates to a market cap of at least $10 billion.
Next, the current annual dividend yield of the companies on this watchlist is at least 3%. While there could be some debate as to what qualifies a company as "high yield," 3% is sufficient for me. In addition to the 3% yield, a 10-year dividend growth rate of at least 5% is the next filter used in hopes to at least keep up with, if not outpace, inflation.
Lastly, a company must be able to maintain a growing dividend for me to consider investing in it, so a trailing twelve-month payout ratio of less than 100% is used as the final filter.
I use dividend yield theory to determine if a stock is potentially undervalued or overvalued and consequently worthy of further research. This simple idea suggests a company's yield should revert to the mean over time. An example below is Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), the current yield is 3.22% while its five-year average is 2.83%. The difference is 39 basis points or approximately 14%, suggesting the stock could be undervalued. It is worth noting I consider any stock that is overvalued or undervalued by 5% to be approximately fairly valued, see also Coca-Cola Co (KO) below.
| Company | 10 Year DGR | Dividend Yield (02/28/23) | Dividend Yield (5 Year Avg.) | Overvalued / Undervalued |
| American Electric Power Company Inc (AEP) | 5.36% | 3.77% | 3.27% | -15% |
| Amgen Inc (AMGN) | 18.35% | 3.68% | 2.80% | -31% |
| Broadcom Inc (AVGO) | 40.17% | 3.10% | 3.33% | 7% |
| Comcast Corp (CMCSA) | 12.76% | 3.12% | 2.19% | -42% |
| ConocoPhillips (COP) | 6.57% | 5.17% | 3.01% | -72% |
| Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) | 18.20% | 3.22% | 2.83% | -14% |
| Coca-Cola Co (KO) | 5.70% | 3.09% | 2.93% | -5% |
| Medtronic PLC (MDT) | 10.02% | 3.29% | 2.18% | -51% |
| 3M Co (MMM) | 9.71% | 5.57% | 3.56% | -56% |
| Morgan Stanley (MS) | 30.88% | 3.21% | 2.59% | -24% |
| Pfizer Inc (PFE) | 6.16% | 4.04% | 3.34% | -21% |
| PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) | 14.01% | 3.80% | 2.93% | -30% |
| Phillips 66 (PSX) | 23.88% | 4.10% | 4.11% | 0% |
| Sempra Energy (SRE) | 6.57% | 3.05% | 3.04% | 0% |
| Truist Financial Corp (TFC) | 9.60% | 4.43% | 3.62% | -22% |
| United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) | 10.31% | 3.55% | 2.96% | -20% |
| US Bancorp (USB) | 9.08% | 4.02% | 3.26% | -23% |
Goal
The goal of my high yield watchlist is to discover companies to add to my dividend growth portfolio in an attempt to consistently exceed the market return of the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM). Through February 2023, an equally weighted portfolio of these 17 stocks mentioned above would have outperformed VYM by about 1%. VYM has lost 1.23% year to date, while an equally weighted portfolio of the stocks above would have lost just 0.30%.
| Symbol | February Returns | YTD Return through February |
| AEP | -5.50% | -6.48% |
| AMGN | -7.41% | -11.02% |
| AVGO | 1.59% | 6.29% |
| CMCSA | -5.54% | 7.10% |
| COP | -14.81% | -12.02% |
| CSCO | -0.51% | 2.45% |
| KO | -2.95% | -6.45% |
| MDT | -1.06% | 6.54% |
| MMM | -5.12% | -8.95% |
| MS | -0.85% | 14.42% |
| PFE | -8.13% | -20.09% |
| PNC | -4.54% | 0.90% |
| PSX | 3.36% | -0.42% |
| SRE | -6.47% | -2.96% |
| TFC | -3.91% | 10.29% |
| UPS | -0.61% | 5.90% |
| USB | -4.16% | 9.45% |
| VYM | -3.51% | -1.23% |
Final Thoughts
This high yield dividend watchlist is used to identify companies worthy of further research. Stock prices fluctuate continuously, and although there are legitimate reasons for an increase or decrease, occasionally there are times the market is just overreacting to a short-term issue. I believe if you can identify the reason(s) and determine for yourself if a decline in stock price is justified, you can minimize risk in your portfolio by purchasing a company's stock when their yield is higher than normal.
This article was written by
Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of HD, LOW, MDT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.