Checkout Budget Highlights 2023The meeting of G20 foreign ministers is set to take place on March 1-2 in the Capital. And if last week's meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Bengaluru is anything to go by, the war between Russia and Ukraine is set to dominate talks.
The meeting in Bengaluru ended without an official statement or communique — with India instead issuing a Chair's Summary and Outcome Document — after Russia and China opposed the inclusion of two paragraphs — the third and the fourth — that spoke of the war.
“Discussions around para 3 and 4 was a position taken by two countries,” Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth told reporters on February 25.
According to Russia and China, the mandate of the finance ministers and central bank governors was to deal with economic and financial issues. As such, they should not get into global geo-political issues, Seth said, explaining their view.
“They said it is not their domain so they will not comment on the language part,” he added, clarifying that there was no demand from these two countries to remove the word ‘war’ from any communique.
However, given the impact of the war on the global economy, G20 members felt the subject had to find a place in the official statement. And this was made amply clear by the US, the G7, France, and Spain in their briefings, where they would not countenance any step back from the language used in the Bali Leaders' Declaration from November.
Finally, two paragraphs were taken from the aforementioned declaration and used in the Chair's Summary, with a footnote saying they were agreed to “by all member countries except Russia and China”.
Almost a communique
As Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman noted in the post-meeting press briefing, a communique couldn’t go with a footnote. However, the Chair’s Summary was as good as a communique, according to officials.
“It’s practically a communique, 95 percent plus,” a senior official told Moneycontrol.
“The (news) headlines that are being run, that a communique was not there… I don’t agree with that. Except those two paragraphs (3 and 4), everything else was agreed,” the source added, on condition of anonymity.
There was indeed agreement on other issues, such as the reform of multilateral development banks, debt restructuring, and cryptocurrencies, among others.
“I am a realist,” a second official added. “So, I see incremental progress has been made, and that’s good.”
From India’s perspective, it could not afford for the rest of the agenda to be derailed by the Russia-Ukraine war.
“Two people might be fighting in an office, but work has to go on. So paragraphs 3 and 4 are the containment zone of sorts,” the first official added.
Condemnation from India?
Before last week’s meeting ended, much of the media chatter was about how India was opposing the inclusion of the word ‘war’ in any official statement to describe the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As it turns out, India’s position is more nuanced.
Per the two paragraphs taken from the Bali Leaders’ Declaration, “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine” while “there were other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions”.
Asked at the post-meeting briefing whether India was part of the “most members” who condemned the war in Ukraine, Sitharaman only said that India had agreed to the Bali declaration.
“The Bali Leaders’ communique, we were a party to (it). We have taken these two paragraphs from there. So, by implication what does that mean?” the finance minister responded.
However, this is where things get murky.
According to one of the officials quoted above, the qualifier “most members” did not include India, either in Bengaluru or Bali.
“Finally, what is ‘most’? It can be 14, 15, 16 members. The remaining had different views and assessments, as the Summary says,” the source added.
The third paragraph noted the United Nations General Assembly resolution from last year, which demanded Russia immediately end its invasion of Ukraine. The resolution was adopted by a vote of 141 in favour to five against, with India being one of the 35 abstentions.
Given that the foreign ministers' meeting is not preceded by multiple working group discussions, it traditionally does not end with a communique. As such, India may find it easier to preside over this week's meetings, although the Russia-Ukraine war will undoubtedly figure in the discussions, especially since it would be a more appropriate forum to discuss geopolitics than last week's meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors.
If there is a decision to release a statement, things could get interesting.
According to sources, Russia last week felt the conflict with Ukraine could not be characterised the way it was in November. Given the sanctions it continues to face, the Bali Leaders' Declaration is a bit one-sided, from Russia's perspective.
“Russia wants the reference to sanctions because they want to condemn the sanctions. They want to make it more balanced and updated because in the last 3-4 months the situation has deteriorated further. But the G7 is not agreeing to change it,” a source said.
While Russia's and China's finance ministers and central bank governors were not physically present for last week's meetings in Bengaluru, reports say foreign ministers Sergei Lavrov and Qin Gang will be in New Delhi this week. With the foreign ministers' meeting an appropriate forum to discuss geopolitics, there are no prizes for guessing which issue will dominate the talks.