Exit polls 2023: Advantage BJP in Tripura, alliance to win Nagaland

Exit polls predicted a win for NDPP, backed by the BJP in Nagaland, and a hung house in Meghalaya, the two states that went to polls on Monday, and seemed to oscillate between predicting a clean sweep for the BJP to a hung house in Tripura, where the Tipra Motha may emerge as a potential king-maker in the polls, held a week back.

Nagaland

In Nagaland, the NDPP is slated to get 28-34 seats with a vote share of 33 per cent, according to India Today-My Axis.

The poll gives BJP a 16 per cent vote share and 10-14 seats. The Congress is predicted to get 10 per cent votes and between 1-2 seats and the rump of the Naga People’s Front which remained after some 21 MLAs joined NDPP is forecast to get 13 per cent vote share and between 3-8 seats. Times Now similarly predicts 27-33 seats for NDPP, 12-16 seats for BJP, and 4-8 seats for NPF. While Zee News-Matrize is giving 35-43 to NDPP-BJP, it has predicted 2-5 seats for the NPF and 1-3 seats for the Congress.

Tripura

Tripura, which the BJP had grabbed from the CPI(M) in 2018, had exit results from three pollsters which varied substantially.

IndiaToday-MyAxis indicated that the BJP would get between 36-45 seats in the 60-member Assembly by garnering 45 per cent of the popular vote. It also predicted the Left-Congress combine would get 6-11 seats with just 32 per cent of the popular vote. The newbie Tipra Motha is shown as gathering 9-16 seats from the tribal areas with a concentrated 20 per cent of the vote share.

However, the ETG-Times Now poll indicated that BJP would remain the largest party but with a substantial drawdown from its earlier tally of 36 to just 24 seats, while Left-Congress would get 21 seats with Tipra Motha snatching 14 seats in the tribal areas. The ZeeNews-Matrize exit poll predicted BJP and its ally would win 29-36 seats in Tripura, while the Left-Congress would get between 13-21 seats, and Tipra would get between 11-16.

Meghalaya

Both the Times Now ETG Exit and India Today-My Axis polls predicted a hung house in the state. The Times Now ETG Exit poll predicted Chief Minister Conrad Sangma’s NPP would get 18-26 seats, TMC would take 8-14 seats, UDP another 8-14 seats while BJP would get anything between 3-6 seats.

India Today-My Axis predicted that NPP would bag 18-24 seats, short of majority.

It also gave UDP 8-12 seats, Congress 6-12 seats, TMC 5-9 seats and the BJP 4-8 seats.

The Zee News-Matrize exit poll predicted that the National People's Party will retain Meghalaya with 21 to 26 seats. Also It predicted 8-13 seats for Trinamool and 6-11 for BJP.