While Hub Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:HUBG) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NASDAQGS over the last few months. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Hub Group’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Hub Group

What Is Hub Group Worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 6.00% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Hub Group today, you’d be paying a relatively fair price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $88.60, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. What's more, Hub Group’s share price may be more stable over time (relative to the market), as indicated by its low beta.

What does the future of Hub Group look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of Hub Group, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? HUBG seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on HUBG for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on HUBG should the price fluctuate below its true value.

With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Hub Group.

If you are no longer interested in Hub Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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