2023 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 2/24/2023 at 09:00 a.m. ET

Could the Kansas Jayhawks become the first repeat champions in men's college basketball since Florida in 2006 and 2007? That's among the questions to consider during the 2022-23 season as Division I's 360-plus teams are now marching to the 2023 NCAA tournament -- a journey that will end at Houston's NRG Stadium for the Final Four on April 1 and 3. ESPN will be there every step of the way with its 2023 bracket projections, evaluating the current state of the bubble and identifying the top seeds for the game's showcase event.

John Gasaway: Bubble Watch -- Complete NCAA bubble picture (ESPN+)

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We've reached the stage of the season when more teams seem to be playing their way out of the tournament than the other way around. Don't believe me? North Texas was climbing into consideration, but scored only 49 points in a loss at Charlotte. Former ACC leader Clemson was able to handle disappointing Syracuse, but not before losing four out of five. New Mexico started the year 14-0, but will be playing for its season on Saturday against San Diego St. And let's not forget fringe teams like Oregon (three straight losses), Utah (now four straight losses) and Vanderbilt, which put itself under consideration only to allow LSU to break a 14-game losing streak. Al Davis had it right. Want to make the NCAA tourney? "Just win, baby..."

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

SOUTH (LOUISVILLE)

Birmingham

1 Alabama - aq
16 Howard - aq/
Fairleigh Dickinson - aq
8 Iowa
9 Nevada

Orlando

DENVER

Sacramento

EAST (NEW YORK)

Columbus

Greensboro

Des Moines

MIDWEST (KANSAS CITY)

Birmingham

Albany

Columbus

Denver

WEST (LAS VEGAS)

Des Moines

Albany

Orlando

Sacramento

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

ESPN

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

SOUTH (LOUISVILLE)

Birmingham

Orlando

DENVER

Sacramento

EAST (NEW YORK)

Columbus

Greensboro

Greensboro

Des Moines

MIDWEST (KANSAS CITY)

Birmingham

Albany

Columbus

Denver

WEST (LAS VEGAS)

Des Moines

Albany

Orlando

Sacramento

Conference Breakdown

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