Checkout Budget Highlights 2023An important Pakistani delegation led by Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif held talks with the Afghan Taliban in Kabul on February 22 on the growing threat from the Tehrik-e Taliban, Pakistan (TTP). Among others, the delegation included the Director-General of the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), Lt Gen Nadeem Anjum, Foreign Secretary Asad Majeed Khan and the Special Envoy on Afghanistan, Mohammed Sadiq. This visit comes in the wake of two major attacks, on the Pakistani Police mosque in Peshawar on January 30 and their DIG headquarters in Karachi on February 17.
Seeking Afghan Taliban’s Help
Though the Pakistani team also met Afghan Defence Minister, Mullah Yaqoob, and Interior Minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani, they were received by hitherto out of the limelight Afghan Taliban leader, Mullah Baradar, First Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs. While a subsequent Pakistani Foreign Office statement mentioned the Afghan Taliban’s assurance “to address their concerns (more) effectively”, the Afghan side mentioned that economic, trade and regional connectivity issues were also discussed.
The TTP was formed in December 2007 with 13 militant Islamist outfits coming together under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud (1972-2009). Overwhelmingly Pashtun in composition (much like the Afghan Taliban), some factions affiliated to it carried out attacks in Punjab, between 2009- 2012, earning the sobriquet of “Punjabi Taliban”. Then some factions split and formed outfits like Jamat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) and Hizb-ul-Ahrar (HuA).
Ideologically, the TTP gravitated towards an extreme, sectarian version of Sunni Islam, akin to the Islamic State (IS). Over the years, its factions maintained contact with Al-Qaeda (AQ) and IS. However, the main branch of TTP pledged loyalty to the Afghan Taliban Amir, currently Haibatullah Akhundzada.
A Formidable Adversary
In their writings in Islamic publications, the TTP emphasise the vices of democracy and the un-Islamic approach of the Pakistani military. There is a repeated refrain to defeat it, end the democratic experiment and introduce Shariat-e-Muhammadi (SM) in Pakistan. They also demand separation of FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), now merged into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
About the Jihad in Kashmir, the TTP’s position is that it is not their fight. Even if Kashmir were to be liberated from Indian control, they hold, it would become part of a country which did not function according to Islamic principles.
The TTP uses the border areas straddling the Durand Line for its operations. Whenever the Pakistan Army launched operations against it, in Swat in 2010, Zarb-e-Azb in 2014 and under Operation Radd-ul-Fassad in 2017, they sought safe havens in neighbouring Pakhtia, parts of eastern Nangarhar, Khost and Pakhtika.
TTP’s Decline And Resurgence
These actions did lead to a decline in TTP’s clout but hot pursuit by Pakistan Army and collateral civilian damage inside Afghanistan have caused serious irritants in its relations with the new Afghan Taliban leadership in Kabul.
After the killing in June 2018 of Mullah Fazlullah, Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud assumed TTP’s leadership. He persuaded split-away factions to return to its fold. Under him, the TTP has resurged remarkably, taking on the Pakistani military with renewed zeal. Since the TTP ended its ceasefire in November, 2022, there has been a spurt in attacks against Pakistani targets, numbering at 58, with casualties assessed at 170. Its current support is assessed to lie between 5,000-7,000 militants.
In the recent past, the Pakistan Army negotiated with the TTP, under supervision of the former DG of ISI and XI Corps Commander, Lt. Gen Faiz Hameed, releasing some leaders and allowing TTP cadres to return to Swat. However, violence and extortion erupted there, which was strongly opposed by local residents. Economic hardships faced by common people in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have not enhanced TTP’s popularity so far but this could change in future.
Afghan Taliban’s Tightrope Walk
The Pakistani establishment has tried to project that the TTP is being helped by Indian intelligence. Spokesmen close to ISI like Ehsanullah Ehsan issued statements to this effect. During his recent visit to the US for the resumed US-Pak strategic dialogue (February 13-16), Pakistani Chief of General Staff, Lt. Gen Mohd Saeed, reiterated the charge, with limited credence.
Beset by emerging factional differences, the Afghan Taliban have so far hesitated to take any deterrent action against the TTP. Their relationship will continue to be dictated by religious-ideological convergence and ethnic-fraternal linkages. However, they cannot also afford to irrevocably annoy their Pakistani benefactors.
They may exert pressure on TTP to temporarily lie low, even as the Pakistan Army resumes some retaliatory operations to dent the TTP’s actions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and elsewhere in Pakistan. There may be efforts also to revive police capabilities and improve coordinated anti – terrorism measures, under a civilian facade.
Rana Banerji is a former Special Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.