Russia-Ukraine war anniversary: India's 'mature' geopolitical navigation amid pressure is in spotlight
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Russia-Ukraine war anniversary: As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its second year, India is expected to be a voice of the reason as G-20 president. In an especially challenging year for Indian diplomacy, as reflected in New Delhi's recent abstention in the UN vote calling for the Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, the focus is back on India’s mature navigation of geopolitical waters amid the ongoing war.
In February 2022, about 11 weeks after New Delhi and Moscow signed a joint statement titled ‘India-Russia Partnership for Peace, Progress and Prosperity’, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced 'special military operations' in the predominantly Russian-speaking Donbas region of Ukraine.
"I hope you hear me," Putin said on February 24, 2022, pointing towards the West. "Anyone who considers interfering from outside, you will face consequences greater than you have ever faced in history," he said while declaring the offensive which, according to a US military estimate, has resulted in 100,000 military casualties on both Russian and Ukrainian sides so far.
Putin’s declaration put countries with whom Moscow shares ‘special’ or ‘privileged’ bilateral ties – such as India, the United Arab Emirates, Israel and Turkey among others –- in a rare geopolitical tight spot. For months, Russia was holding a gun to Ukraine’s head, citing ‘security challenges’ such as an eastward expansion of NATO despite West’s past diplomatic assurances against the same.
That day, Putin pulled the trigger, shooting much of the Russian diplomatic capital in the West, and sending combative shockwaves across the Global South. The term Global South has come to be associated with the countries that were left out of the industrialisation wave, mostly the nations in the regions of Latin America, Africa, Asia and Oceania.
At its centre continues to be a geopolitically rising India, with a long history of bilateral bonhomie with Russia and the erstwhile Soviet Union.
India: A sane voice amid the war cry
India's careful geopolitical navigation was visible on February 23rd when New Delhi abstained from a non-binding UN vote that called upon Moscow to end hostilities against Kyiv. India's permanent representative to the UN Ruchira Kamboj quoted Prime Minister Narendra Modi while asserting that "no solution can ever arrive at the cost of human lives". India, while recognising the "inherent limitations" of the said resolution, added that it is "constrained to abstain" and that only viable way out of the conflict are "dialogue and diplomacy".
ALSO WATCH | How has the Russia- Ukraine war changed the word?
India's voice has been that of restraint, that maintains its signature strategic autonomy, while calling for the ‘cessation of hostilities’ and upholding of the UN charter, according to experts. At the same time, India’s reaction to the Russian military action has been rooted in protecting New Delhi’s national interests with its desire to reduce hostilities between the two sides, they say.
“India has been following the buildup of tensions for the last several years and always knew that this was no ordinary conflict or war in the classical sense. It is a multilayered conflict with deep roots in history,” said Pankaj Saran, India’s former deputy National Security Advisor (2018- 2021), a job he took soon after returning from Moscow as India’s envoy (2016-2018). Saran is currently the convenor of New Delhi-based Centre for Research on Security and Strategic Issues.
“The issues involved relate to the fundamentals of the European security architecture,” Saran told WION, referring to the security implications of the US-led transatlantic alliance.
Anil Wadhwa, India’s former envoy to Italy, Poland and Lithuania, Thailand, and Oman, added that New Delhi’s response to the war has been characterised by ‘restraint’, that is, “condemnation of the civilian killings and abstention from the votes on the UN resolutions by the United States and West”.
“This is not an isolated position,” Wadhwa said, while referring to the multilateral posturing of the countries such as the UAE, South Africa, Israel and Turkey in relation to the ongoing war.
During the one year of war, in its abstentions from the UN votes condemning Russian actions against Ukraine, India has often found itself in the company of South Africa and China – two of its BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) partners. Individually, despite their bilateral issues, both New Delhi and Beijing have courted Moscow to ‘end the war’. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s famous ‘today’s era is not of war’ pitch to Vladimir Putin found its place in the Bali G20 declaration, shadowing a much-complicated geopolitical challenge as New Delhi took over the G20 presidency — during what has now become the second year of war in Ukraine.
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