Maj Gen Ashok K Mehta (retd)

Military Commentator

AS the war in Ukraine enters the second year, it marks an era of ‘distant trench warfare’ with state-of-the-art weapons being used to fight over every inch of land. It is no longer a war between Russia and Ukraine but between Russia and Europe/NATO led by the US, which has invested military hardware worth $50 billion to create the stalemate.

For Europe, Russia is its foremost enemy. Two decades ago, military thinkers in the UK had celebrated the end of interstate wars, replaced by the phase of limited wars and counter-terrorism. In Ukraine, an all-out war is being fought with full-spectrum force and only a nuclear superpower like Russia could wage a conflict in the face of severe western sanctions, disrupting food and fuel supply chains. No third country has dared to intervene.

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the war has gone horribly wrong and even if he wants to stop it, he can’t, proving that it is easy to launch a military invasion but difficult to end it on your terms. The plethora of disinformation confirms the adage, ‘Truth is the first casualty in war’.

Ukrainians have managed to recapture almost half the land lost to Russia. Tanks, artillery and drones have fought integrated battles supported by cyberwarfare which attacked critical infrastructure and power supply. But the failure of strategic communication stands out, though psywar and social media have tormented both sides.

There is no dearth of premature prescriptions for India. Chief of the Army Staff Gen Manoj Pande recently said that he had ordered a detailed analysis of the strategic, operational, tactical and diplomatic lessons from the ongoing war. India’s historic relations with Russia stand stressed as the US sees an opportunity to wean it away from Moscow. Given the deep and time-tested strategic, technological and military dependence of India on Russia, including the nuclear knowhow, a clean break is impossible and even undesirable given the US record in unreliability as a partner.

Russian-origin platforms constitute 70 to 85 per cent of India’s inventory. Western sanctions and mounting Russian equipment losses have disrupted the supply of spares. A number of joint air exercises, including IAF triennial fire power demonstrations, were cancelled. Indo-Russian joint projects involving T-90 tanks and AK-203 assault rifles are on hold. The order for 50 Mi-17 helicopters and other rotary wing aircraft were cancelled, but orders for submarines, F-35s and lease of a Chakra-3 nuclear-powered submarine remain on the wish list.

India has bought huge quantities of cheap Russian oil to scale up reserves with average trade for a single month amounting to $18 billion. The Ukraine defence industry was developed by the erstwhile Soviet Union and a number of spares and logistics works were done there. The An-32 refurbishment plan stands delayed. At this month’s air show in Bengaluru, Ukraine was minimally represented; otherwise, it used to have one of the biggest pavilions, displaying tanks, aircraft and force multipliers such as drones.

The US has kept an eagle eye on India-Russia defence cooperation and arms purchase. It has periodically warned India not to cross the red line on sanctions against Russia. In April 2022, the then US Deputy National Security Adviser Daleep Singh arrived in New Delhi and warned India of political consequences for undermining US sanctions. The sword of Damocles hung over India’s purchase of five S-400 air defence missile systems worth $5 billion. The Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) threat appears to have blown over. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said last month that the US would provide India $500 million for its defence production.

The elephant in the room is the Dragon. The China-Russia strategic partnership mushroomed in 2019, culminating in 2021 in the ‘no-limits strategic partnership’, central to which is Russian military hardware, technology and oil and gas in lieu of Chinese political support and funding. Russia has said that the India-China border dispute is a bilateral matter. Some of the military equipment Russia sold to China is the same it has sold to India.

The Ukraine war has proved decisively that the seizure of territory is cardinal in shaping the political objective of the conflict. Russian Generals — several reportedly killed — underestimated the capability of Ukrainian resistance and severely exaggerated their own strength. The Russian infantry was dominated by conscripts — inadequately trained and motivated. The takeaway for India is to scrap or course-correct the Agnipath scheme in order to retain the integrity and cohesion of its infantry.

Before extracting lessons, the context and India’s geographical space need to be factored in. India’s principal challenger is China — not Pakistan — which has, since 2020, through military coercion gobbled up 200 sq km in Ladakh. China now says it is not a border dispute, but the issue of sovereignty. China will likely ‘salami-slice’ the LAC, including the 14 disputed pockets. Its excellent infrastructure in Tibet and comprehensive military strength have enabled it to dominate the border and dictate the agenda.

The conspicuous asymmetry in China-India defence budgets — 3:1 — is letting the power and capability gap to grow incrementally. The one big lesson from Ukraine is to hike defence spending. Every country in Europe and many in Indo-Pacific have increased defence spending significantly. Some countries like Japan and Germany nearly doubled it.

Indian military’s modernisation funding for 2023-24 is a paltry Rs 1.62 lakh crore. Defence finance expert Amit Cowshish says 60-80 per cent allocation goes towards meeting committed liabilities. Given the falling rupee and inflation, there is no money for new projects. In real terms, the allocation for 2023-24 is less than that for the current fiscal. The second lesson is about quickly producing a national security strategy so that theatrisation can proceed. Meanwhile, let us hope that China’s President Xi Jinping stays focused on Taiwan, not Tawang.