Putin still claims that Ukraine is not a legitimate independent nation but the invention of a Polish and Austro-Hungarian Empire plot dating back to the nineteenth century. The United States as ever, is the villain that destroyed Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya, and now wants, presumably, to destroy Ukraine – though it is Kremlin forces who are bombing blocks of flats, power stations and committing war crimes across the occupied territories. Ukraine is, in this grotesque narrative, being used by the West as “a ram against Russia”, and in response Russia is “using force to stop the war”.

Propaganda

The old propaganda about Western chemical weapons factories and Ukraine acquiring nuclear weapons were repeated again. For the benefit of those in the West who favour Putin’s reactionary values, and are inclined to be apologists, he accuses Western governments of declaring paedophilia “normal” and “forcing priests” to conduct equal marriage ceremonies. The serried ranks of suited bureaucrats, soldiers in dress uniforms and clergy, nodded and applauded on cue.

As if to prove the effect of Western sanctions, Putin spent a good deal of time making up statistics about Russia’s fabulous economic performance. Listening to Putin’s grindingly tedious farrago of lies, one would never have thought that it was Russia that invaded Ukraine, its smaller neighbour, entirely unprovoked on February 24, 2022. Even if everything Putin said about Nato provocation and the treatment of Russian speakers were true, it doesn’t justify, morally or legally, the attempted annexation of another nation.

Having said all that, though, the guy is still standing. That is the real surprise of 2023. Despite the failure of his “special military operation”, the degradation of living standards and international isolation, Putin hasn’t been overthrown, either through a popular revolt, military intervention or a palace coup.

There have been some demonstrations, and the occasional story about misgivings in the small cliques who run the country, but as far as can be judged, Putin’s position remains secure. Despite his slightly bizarre appearance, the puffy face, the deluded, paranoid view of the world, and rumours about treatments for cancer and Parkinson’s, neither has Putin conveniently succumbed to illness.

Control

It isn’t difficult to see why. He controls the media in a way that ensures the Russian people are only ever exposed to one ubiquitous narrative about Nato hostility, wolfish aggression and moral degeneration. It was hoped by many that the internet would help break this hold on the flow of news and information, but most Russians still rely on television, and the broadcasts are full of stooges who’d make Putin blush, people whose only vague criticism of the government is that it has been too soft on the neo-Nazis of Kyiv.

The casualties and even the military defeats can’t be entirely camouflaged, but they’ve been turned into chapters in a nationalistic narrative of heroic defiance. The Russian people are as brainwashed as at any time in their history, with the exception of the height of the Stalin era. It is hard to believe from a Western perspective, with the Wild West, free-for-all that is its media and social media landscape, but it is a reality the West has to confront.

The departure of McDonalds, Renault and Shell has been noticed, obviously, but it has not destroyed morale. The Russians have been through worse, and they are being convinced that these are the kind of patriotic sacrifices they must make. The one front where the Kremlin has been successful is the propaganda war. But there is more to it than that.

Myths

Putin’s repetition of confused myths and legends feeds into a century of paranoia, admittedly sometimes justified, about malign "Western" intentions, dating back to the aftermath of the Bolshevik revolution, Operation Barbarossa, and only briefly punctuated by intermittent attempts at detente. The Russians, for strong historic reasons, find it impossible to see themselves as fascists or neo-Nazis, even as their leader follows a Hitlerite playbook.

The uncomfortable truth is that Putin’s preoccupation with his country’s diminished status in the world, his nostalgia for the order and respect the old USSR commanded, and a deference towards even older Orthodox Christian traditional beliefs, is shared by many of his own citizens.

They’ve grown up on a historical mash-up of Tsarist and Soviet heroic iconography, from Peter the Great to Yuri Gagarin. Red stars and double-headed eagles coexist in the regalia of modern Russia, and they know who the historic enemy is. It is a deeply entrenched culture of persecution, which the West did far too little to assuage in the short window of opportunity that opened up, broadly after the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, and the arrival of Putin and his revanchist agenda in 2000.

The opportunity for a real partnership envisaged by Mikhail Gorbachev was hardly explored in the chaotic Yeltsin years, and, to that extent, the West let Russia down and damaged its own long-term interests and those of world peace.

When this war is over, and Ukraine has regained its independence, the West should not be vindictive towards the people of Russia, demanding reparations and the like, and feeding yet another generation of resentments and myths of betrayal. Dealing with war crimes and the position of Putin, if he survives in place, will be a big challenge, and force difficult decisions.

Assuming that "unconditional surrender" isn’t Ukrainian or Western policy, we need now to start thinking about a new security framework to secure long-term peace in Europe. In other words, the West has to do what it failed to do after World War II and the Cold War were won, and make a plan for a stable, enduring peace with Russia.