Shareholders might have noticed that Alfen N.V. (AMS:ALFEN) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.9% to €77.16 in the past week. Alfen reported €440m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €2.43 beat expectations, being 6.4% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Alfen

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Alfen's five analysts is for revenues of €572.4m in 2023, which would reflect a huge 30% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 22% to €3.00. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €566.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.01 in 2023. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €115. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Alfen analyst has a price target of €143 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €65.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2023 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 30% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 33% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.6% per year. So although Alfen is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Alfen analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Alfen (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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