Just over two years ago, I wrote here about chasers that had a wind operation since their last run, a procedure performed to help them breathe better when racing.
t the time, it was profitable to follow such horses, but having looked at the data again, that’s no longer the case. Their win rate has dropped slightly, and like most profitable betting angles, the edge from following them seems to have disappeared.
That’s how it usually works in betting; profitable angles are available for a limited time until everyone cops on to it, at which point they become overbet and the prices on offer contract.
We’ll find out today if a recent wind-op, usually denoted by the letters WS (wind surgery) on the racecard, has helped Nicky Henderson’s Shishkin, which is 9/4 at the time of writing for today’s Grade One Betfair Ascot Chase (3.35).
It’s not his first wind-op and Henderson played down its significance, commenting that it’s a simple procedure to tighten the palate, which can be done as many times as you like.
I’m a fan of Shishkin and I’d love to see him back to his best – but it’s also worth noting that he’s wearing a tongue tie for the first time, which is not always a good sign in my view.
He clocked up his ninth career win, and his seventh over fences, in the Clarence House here last January in a cracking race against Energumene, but things have come off the rails somewhat since, and he was pulled up in the Champion Chase.
More recently, he could only manage third of six in the Tingle Creek at Sandown when last seen in December. The step up in trip here might give him a lift, but with all those question marks considered, I just can’t have him at that price.
Instead, last year’s winner Fakir D’Oudairies gets the nod for Joseph O’Brien and JJ Slevin. The eight-year-old is shaping up to be a seriously talented chaser with a number of Grade One victories in Britain to his credit. It was certainly no disgrace to finish second to Galopin Des Champs when last seen in an Irish Grade One in December.
Fakir D’Oudairies has since gone on to win the Grade Two Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles – granted, he was gifted the race when Haut En Couleurs fell, but he was battling well nonetheless and can take advantage at 13/8 should Shishkin fail to fire once again.
At Haydock, we’ve the Grand National Trial to get stuck into (2.40) and this looks competitive, with last year’s winner Bristol De Mai, from Nigel Twiston-Davies’ yard, attracting support in the early markets, alongside Venetia Williams’ tough mare Fontaine Collonges.
They both have very strong claims but look a little short in the betting, so I’m siding with Grumpy Charley, expected to go off at a decent each-way price in the region of 16/1.
Trained by Chris Honour with Bryan Carver booked to ride, the eight-year-old won a handicap at Newbury back in December off a rating of 135, and his last race, where he was pulled up two weeks later at Warwick, rated 141, is ignored as he seemed a little tired after the quick return. He’s had a decent break and is down 1lb to 140, which gives him every chance.
Another one I like at Haydock is Erne River, which has been chalked up at 5/2 for the Grade Two Betfred Rendlesham Hurdle (2.05).
The Nick Kent-trained gelding has also had wind surgery since last seen at Doncaster, where he traded below 1/5 in-running on Betfair before being chinned on the line by Silver Flyer on his return to hurdling, following a stint over fences.
He’s up 3lbs for today which is reasonably fair as he lost nothing in defeat and looks the one to beat.
Six runners go to post for the JenningsBet Bracknell Handicap Chase at Wincanton (2.32) and the outsider, Balko Saint, catches my eye at 10/1.
A decent hurdler in his day, Jane Williams’ six-year-old has yet to win over fences in five attempts, but his rating was far too high, starting at 129.
It’s been dropping quite a bit lately, and he finished mid-division off 117 last time out at Chepstow, so a further cut to 115 this afternoon may make him competitive.
Finally, First Street gets the nod in the four-runner Grade Two Wincanton Jennings Bet Kingwell Hurdle (3.12) for Nicky Henderson.
He had a couple of these behind him when third in the Relkeel Hurdle and has a great opportunity to get back to winning ways here at 11/8.