Agartala: As Tripura voted to elect legislators for 60 assembly constituencies on February 16, news of long queues has given way to reports of sporadic violence, voters being prevented from entering polling booths and expulsion of opposition party polling agents from booths.
Incidents of violence on poll day morning were reported from the Shalgora area of Gomati district, where at least two persons needed to be admitted to the hospital. Last night, bombs were allegedly thrown by ruling party supporters at opposition party workers’ houses in places of Sipahijala district.
Reports of voters being prevented from reaching polling booths came in from the Khayerpur, Karamchara, Matabari and Dhanpur constituencies. At Dhanpur voters blocked a road at booth number 25, after they were allegedly prevented from voting.
As many as 259 contenders are in the fray. The electorate is 28-lakh strong and the total number of booths is 3,337. As early as 9 am, the average turnout was 44%.
Citing its ‘Mission Zero Poll Violence’ theme, the Election Commission of India had earlier assured voters that the state will see fair, free and peaceful voting this time, although residents remain skeptical considering the state’s history of law and order issues in the recent past. The Chief Electoral Officer Kiran Gitte said poll violence had scaled down to 30% when compared with past polls.
Bru migrant voters are able to exercise their franchise after many years due to rehabilitation ®istration of voters in Tripura. They are seen coming out in large numbers in Haduklaupara in 47 Ambassa Assembly Constituency in Dhalai district.#TripuraElections2023 #IVote4Sure pic.twitter.com/s89WckKfmJ
— Election Commission of India #SVEEP (@ECISVEEP) February 16, 2023
Alliances and faces
Communist Party of India (Marxist), which is in an alliance with Congress, sees the elections as a fight to regain democracy, peace, tranquillity and constitutional rule. It is significant that the two parties, ties between whom have not been perfect, have come together nonetheless to oust the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.
BJP on the other hand is banking on the famed ‘double engine’ power of its government in the state and the Union. The latter is under Narendra Modi, the party’s most significant poll figure even in assembly elections.
BJP’s poll posters show current chief minister Manik Saha, but the image of Modi on the same poster is distinctly larger. Although CPI(M) does not follow a practice of projecting a chief ministerial candidate, it is believed that Jitendra Chowdhury, its state secretary, will be the pick for the position should the Left-Congress combine win. In that case, Chowdhury will be the second ever chief minister from a tribal community in the state.
This time, a third and formidable force in the form of the TIPRA Motha, has made the fight interesting. The Motha has curbed a decades-long trend in which Scheduled Tribes-based regional parties would join larger national parties for a share in government. Its main demand is a separate state for tribal people. Significantly, it has fielded more candidates in unreserved seats than ST-reserved seats and more non-tribal candidates that tribal ones.
The Tripura Upajati Yuba Samity (TUJS) which usually went with Congress, later became the IPFT and INPT. The former, having joined with the BJP, toppled the 25-year Left regime in 2018. But last year, IPFT lost both its appeal and strength as TIPRA Motha appeared to side-line most tribal parties in the state.
Campaigns and promises
The CPI(M)-led Left Front has fielded 46 candidates, its ally Congress has fielded 13, and the combine has supported an Independent candidate. BJP nominated 55, leaving five for IPFT. However, both the parties have fielded one more candidate than what was decided earlier.
TIPRA Motha has 43 candidates. Trinamool Congress has fielded candidates in 28 constituencies. Other small parties have candidates in 14 seats and 55 Independents are in the fray.
BJP campaigned aggressively, bringing out its whole gamut comprising Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union home minister Amit Shah, several state chief ministers and top leaders, including film stars. Modi and Shah’s visits were media fanfares. Television, print and digital media spaces were also flooded with ads. Among most prolific BJP campaigners is Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Reports have also come in from various places in the state on BJP leaders allegedly intimidating people into supporting them.
The Left-Congress combine instead focused on street corners, small group discussions and one-to-one communications. For the first time ever, no Gandhis visited the state ahead of an assembly poll.
The Left, in its manifesto, assured state residents of 50,000 jobs every year. It also said it would take back a whole batch of sacked teachers, popularly known as the “10323 teachers,” back into the government fold.
It also said that the amendments in the Labour Law were detrimental to workers interests and will be rolled back. An increase in wages of workers and timely revision; dearness allowance twice a year to government employees; free electricity of up to 50 unites in every household, more power to the Tribal Area Autonomous District Council; and medical, housing, water and electricity facilities to families of tea workers and financial help for education to their children were also part of the Left’s promises.
The law and order situation will be brought back to normalcy, the Left has promised.
Congress’s promises were similar – restoration of law and order, 250 units of free electricity, and government jobs to the ‘10323’ teachers are among them.
TIPRA Motha in a styled booklet promised industry, better education facilities, and that they would address the law and order issue.
BJP in a fleshy book, which it named ‘Sankalppatra’ (document of resolution) rolled out a list of promises, like a scooty to every meritorious woman student, an investment for industry, more autonomy for Tribal Area Autonomous District Council, and so on.
BJP, significantly, made no specific promises of government jobs. Nor did it make any assurances to the ‘10323’ teachers, which affects about 8,500 families. In the 2018 BJP manifesto, there were 299 promises, including that of the teachers which remains unsolved.
BJP stressed that crime in its regime has reduced drastically. At the same time, the opposition has given primacy to this issue.
The day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed in Agartala that Tripura women are safer since the BJP came to power, the chairperson of the Tripura Women’s Commission, a BJP leader, was attacked on her home turf allegedly by her own party cadres and lodged a complaint against them.
Reserved seats
The Left has traditionally had a strong hold of rural and semi-urban areas, but it was the ST-reserved seats in the state which were considered to be its rock solid bastion.
In the last assembly elections, it lost this hold on the ST-reserved seats and the BJP-IPFT combine made big inroads. The cry of a separate ‘Tipraland’ which resonated enough to bring the BJP-IPFT to power then is lost now. In the space left by IPFT’s perceived inability to convince BJP to act on this promise, TIPRA Motha made great strides.
Frustrated IPFT supporters joined Motha, which has the same slogan and has called for unity among tribal communities. Its victory in the TTAADC polls alerted many to the possibility that it can prove to be a game changer this time.
TIPRA Motha is headed by a member of the former royal family of the state Pradyot Manikya Debbarma, who appears to have kept his distance from all the parties but at the same time, kept doors open saying that anyone desiring Motha’s support should write a bond that the party would look into its demands for a constitutional solution. From BJP, Pradyot sought the assurance that as the party in power at the Union, it would commit to the cause entirely.
Although the definition of ‘greater’ in the ‘Greater Tipraland’ demand of the Motha is quite hazy, it remains to be seen if the cause resonates enough with voters.
A string of flags, each with a mug shot of TIPRA president Pradyot Manikya Debbarman at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar. Photo: Sangeeta Barooah Pisharoty/The Wire
Congress, meanwhile, ruled the state until 1978 and then again from 1988-1993. Though it was eventually down to 10-12 seats, it has held a vote share of above 40% in every election it has lost since 1993.
The last time the state went to the polls, Congress supporters and leaders had moved to BJP in large numbers and are believed to have played a role in increasing BJP’s vote share to 43% in 2018.
With IPFT’s draw in the tribal seats, Congress voters having switched to it and Left voters drawn by its promises, BJP had pulled off a feat in 2018 in a state where it had a very limited committed voter base.
After five years, with a dented IPFT and with Congress having got back its most charismatic leader in the state, Sudip Roy Barman, who in 2018 was BJP, the fight is likely to be intense. With the Left’s base in unreserved seats considered to have remained the same, the difference is likely to be made by tribal voters.
In 2018, CPI(M) got two out of 20 such seats, while BJP got 10 and its ally IPFT got 8. This time, CPI(M) has not appeared to make significant inroads into its traditional vote bank. BJP, too, has had a rough time with ST-reserved seats.
Edited by Soumashree Sarkar.