Nutrien slides after steep Q4 miss, guides FY 2023 earnings below consensus

Nutrien (NYSE:NTR) -3.5% post-market Wednesday after Q4 adjusted earnings widely missed Wall Street estimates even as revenues rose 3.7% Y/Y to $7.53B.

Q4 net earnings fell to $1.19B, or $2.15/share, from $1.21B, or $2.11/share, in the year-earlier quarter, due to lower sales volumes partially offset by higher net realized selling prices.

The company approved a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.53/share and approved the purchase of up to 5% of its outstanding common shares over 12 months.

Nutrien (NTR) issued downside guidance for FY 2023 earnings, seeing adjusted EPS of $8.45-$10.65, well below the $11.44 analyst consensus estimate, and adjusted EBITDA of $8.4B-$10B, short of $10.23 consensus.

The company forecasts full-year potash sales volumes of 13.8M-14.6M metric tons, assuming increased demand in its key markets of North America and Brazil as well as continued global supply constraints in 2023, and nitrogen sales volumes of 10.8M-11.4M tons, assuming higher operating rates at its North American plants and a continuation of gas curtailments in Trinidad in 2023.

Nutrien (NTR) said it is "adjusting the ramp up timing of its existing low-cost potash capacity to optimize capital expenditures in-line with the pace of expected demand recovery in 2023 and beyond," as it now expects to reach 18M tons of annual operational capability in 2026.

Nutrien (NTR) shares have gained 7.5% so far this year and 3.5% during the past year.