Why No. 1 LSU baseball will – and won't – win the College World Series in 2023

BATON ROUGE ― Another year of LSU baseball is just around the corner.

And this season, the expectations in Baton Rouge are as high as they can ever be: National title or bust.

Before their season opener against Western Michigan on Friday (6:30 p.m., SEC Network+), here's a look at why the No. 1-ranked Tigers will – and won't – become national champions in 2023.

Why LSU baseball will win the College World Series

Picking anyone else as the favorite to win it all in 2023 would be overthinking it.

LSU has the projected No. 1 overall pick in the MLB Draft (Dylan Crews), the No. 1 transfer portal class in the nation and the No. 1 recruiting class.

The Tigers have functional depth at every position and have replaced their departing stars with more stars. Jacob Berry and Cade Doughty may have left for MLB, but NC State transfer and ACC Freshman of the Year Tommy White and Air Force transfer and All-American Paul Skenes comfortably slide into their roles in the lineup.

Speaking of Skenes, the new Tiger also filled LSU's biggest need this offseason: Starting pitching. Skenes – whose top velocity has jumped to 99 mph – will be the Friday starter, as he provides top-end quality to a rotation that was LSU's demise last season.

Along with Skenes, LSU also added transfers Thatcher Hurd (UCLA) and Christian Little (Vanderbilt) and bolstered their depth with freshmen Chase Shores, Aiden Moffett and Griffin Herring. The Tigers also bring back promising returning contributors like Ty Floyd and Samuel Dutton.

No team in college baseball has as much talent and holds as well-rounded of a roster as LSU in 2023. That's the best sign of a national champion.

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Why LSU baseball will not win the College World Series

Ole Miss was not the favorite to win the College World Series in 2022.

In fact, many believed the Rebels weren't even supposed to make the tournament. Ole Miss was the last team picked by the selection committee after struggling for much of the regular season.

But if Ole Miss' story is a lesson for anything, it's this: College baseball is unpredictable.

Like LSU, Tennessee was the runaway favorite to win it all last season and the Volunteers failed to even get to Omaha. Half of the teams that reached the College World Series in 2022 didn't host a regional and Stanford, the No. 2 overall seed, failed to win a game when it got there.

The consensus favorite usually doesn't prevail in college baseball. And, as unlikely as it may seem today, LSU could easily fall victim to that fate if it suffers a couple more key injuries (Grant Taylor is already out for the year) and has a few unforeseen bad performances in big moments from important players along the way.

Koki Riley covers LSU sports for The Daily Advertiser and the USA TODAY Sports South Region. Email him at kriley@theadvertiser.com and follow him on Twitter at @KokiRiley.