Breaking down girls' Arizona high school basketball Open Division quarterfinals

After holding the first two rounds over the course of three days last week, the inaugural girls’ basketball Open Division is now in the midst of an eight-day break before the quarterfinals.

In a sense, this is really the start of the tournament. Losers from the first two rounds have dropped down the their respective conference tournaments. From here, it’s win or go home.

This weekend, The Republic broke down the matchups in Friday’s quarterfinals. Here are five things we’ll be watching for in those matchups

Is Desert Vista beatable?

For the most part, this has been a really fun season of girls’ hoops in the state. Great games, great teams, great players. Lots of fun storylines all over the place, like in 5A, where the top four seeds are all schools that have never won a championship.

Through it all, though, there’s been a sense of inevitability atop the state. Not only is Desert Vista undefeated against Arizona opponents, but it’s felt like no one can even come within arms’ reach of the Thunder. After all, this is a team with two players (Jerzy Robinson and Shay Ijiwoye) who have a claim to being the best in the state.

But in last week’s 77-64 second round win over Valley Vista, the Thunder finally looked fallible. Maybe it’s just a case of Valley Vista (the No. 17 seed) matching up well — they were, after all, the only in-state team to hold Desert Vista within single digits back on Jan. 10. Or maybe there’s something more there.

Friday’s game against Salpointe Catholic will be a good test. The Lancers play through one of the best players in the state in Taliyah Henderson, who averages 19 points per game. Back on Dec. 1, Desert Vista beat Salpointe, 58-48, and held Henderson to 15 points on 4-of-11 shooting. If she finds more of a groove on Friday, an upset is possible. Not likely, but possible.

Can Aiyanna Perkins continue her incredible tournament?

Perkins doesn’t get enough credit for how good she’s been over the past two years. Before she arrived on campus, McClintock hadn’t finished over .500 since 2008-09. Then, as a freshman last year, Perkins led the Chargers to an 18-9 record and a playoff berth.

That was a precursor for this year. After going 23-2 in the regular season, McClintock was woefully under-seeded as the No. 21 team in the state. So what did Perkins do? In a tricky first-round matchup with Canyon View, she dropped a cool 42 to lead McClintock to a 60-59 win. In the second round, she nearly had a triple-double (26 points, 10 assists, eight rebounds) as McClintock knocked off Mesquite, 69-54.

So far, she’s the player of the tournament. If she can keep that up against Xavier Prep, it’ll be the upset of the tournament. Which leads us to the next question:

Is Xavier Prep too good?

Canyon View and Mesquite are both good teams, but Xavier Prep is a different beast. They’re quick, they’re skillful and they’re big enough to defend the interior. That doesn’t mean they’re unbeatable — Perry’s Khamil Pierre averaged 26 in two wins over the Gators — but there’s a reason they’re the No. 4 seed.

Without the injured Sarah Miller, Dominique Nesland has stepped up in a big way this year, averaging 20.9 points per game (up from 13.8 last year). Maureen Ulrich is a problem inside. Sienna Cherwinski extends opposing defenses with her 3-point shooting. And Irene Noelle Guiamatsia has used her size to become one of the best freshmen in the state.

In other words, this is an excellent, well-balanced team. They’re the type of squad that can knock off Desert Vista if everything goes right. But first, they have to get past McClintock. That’s the matchup of the quarterfinals.

Is Seton Catholic a contender?

The Open Division is undeniably fun. Just look at this round. Three of the four matchups (Desert Vista-Salpointe, Xavier Prep-McClintock and Seton Catholic-Millennium) are inter-conference duels that wouldn’t have existed in the old setup.

But the downside is that the best team in two of the three big-school conferences will go home without a title, while less-deserving teams lift hardware. In that sense, Seton Catholic could end up on the short end of the stick. This is a school with 547 students, 18% of Desert Vista’s enrollment. The Sentinels don’t have the same high-major talent as some of their competition.

And yet, all of the above might be discarding them too easily. This is the No. 3 seed for a reason. They’re incredibly well coached, score inside and out and get contributions from everyone in the rotation, especially on the defensive end. The proof is in the pudding: In two playoff games, they’ve held Sahuaro and Mesa to 31 and 42 points, respectively.

If they beat Millennium, they’ll be two games from a title. Why not?

Will Pinnacle push Perry?

On paper, Perry-Pinnacle feels like the least interesting of Friday’s four matchups.

The Pumas, led by Pierre’s 24.0 points per game, have been secure in their standing as the No. 2 team in the state for months. Pinnacle, meanwhile, isn’t an established power like fellow underdogs Salpointe and Millennium. They don’t have Aiyanna Perkins threatening to drop 40 on any given night like McClintock.

But they’re also quietly an excellent team. There’s a reason they’re 12-1 in 2023 and have won their first two games in the Open by an average of 20 points. Plus, junior Mia Singstock (19.2 points, 6.4 rebounds per game) is one of the most underrated players in the state. She scored 20 in the season opener, when Pinnacle lost to Perry, 57-48, in the only matchup between the teams.

I’m not picking Pinnacle, but don’t be surprised if the Pioneers make a game of this.

Theo Mackie covers Arizona high school sports and the Arizona Diamondbacks. He can be reached by email at theo.mackie@gannett.com and on Twitter @theo_mackie.

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