Column: Akio Toyoda's vision of retrofitted EVs is noble, but flawed

Akio Toyoda and the company he leads have taken a considerable amount of flak from environmentally minded folks, electric vehicle enthusiasts and industry observers for Toyota Motor Corp.'s deliberate pace in building an EV lineup.

For the record, I think Toyota's decision to offer a variety of powertrains in the near and midterm as a means of advancing toward carbon neutrality — gasoline-electric hybrid, plug-in hybrid and even hydrogen fuel cell, as well as an incoming wave of EVs — is sensible for a company with a broad, high-volume vehicle lineup, albeit a conservative plan compared with its peers that are all-in on EVs now and eliminating emissions entirely. There are still a lot of consumers who are not sold on EVs for a number of reasons — utility, range, an insufficient charging network or merely a visceral hatred of EVs, such as the Wyoming Republicans who are seeking to ban EV sales to protect the local oil industry. The business case for an all-EV automaker, even in light of Tesla's improbable success, is not proven yet.

So given Toyota's typically pragmatic approach, I found myself scratching my head when my colleague Hans Greimel reported on Jan. 13 that Toyoda envisions another pillar in the war on carbon: taking vehicles with internal combustion engines off the road and retrofitting them with battery EV and hydrogen powertrains.

The idea of EV retrofits is not new. One niche player, EV West in California, sells conversion kits for a handful of classic cars under the Volkswagen Group umbrella ranging from the 1955-1974 Karmann Ghia ($8,734) to the 1965-1986 Porsche 911 ($11,594) to the 1971-1979 VW Super Beetle ($18,695).

Legacy automakers are also in on the action. For example, Ford Motor Co. in 2021 debuted the Ford F-100 Eluminator concept, a pickup styled like a 1978 F-100 and outfitted with two 2021 Mustang Mach-E GT Performance Edition motors. Alongside the concept, Ford announced that customers could buy an Eluminator Mach-E electric motor online or through a dealership. It's listed at $4,340.

And Toyoda, while unveiling his vision at the Tokyo Auto Salon, showed off a pair of carbon-free concepts derived from Toyota AE86 compact sports cars, one with an EV battery and the other with a hydrogen-combustion system.

These are neat ideas for hobbyists with financial means, but I am having a difficult time seeing this work on a meaningful scale.

For starters, seeing how wary many people are of brand-new EVs with modern technologies and construction, how much consumer appeal is there in taking an aging Corolla or Land Cruiser and making it an EV? Sure, a few people might dig it, but not the masses.

If I am interpreting correctly what Toyoda said — he did not provide a timeline or costs — making a significant impact on air quality would mean converting a big chunk of the approximately 1.5 billion vehicles on Earth.

That would also mean figuring out how to do these conversions at a scale that makes it economically viable for retrofitters and consumers. With today's battery chemistries, obtaining batteries alone would be an enormously challenging and expensive proposition. Add in the installation costs, and will it be affordable for consumers?

With passenger vehicles coming in all shapes and sizes, how many variations of conversion kits would be needed? Would the vehicles' bodies and frames need to be in pristine condition for a retrofit, or would they need to be repaired, adding additional expense?

Another consideration is that EV conversions could considerably alter a vehicle's physical constitution and driving dynamics. If such vehicles showed any promise of becoming a significant portion of traffic, would automakers, dealership service departments, body shops and other retrofitters welcome a heavier regulatory hand from government in the U.S. and abroad?

Perhaps this could be a potential new revenue stream for dealerships looking to replace routine maintenance associated with ICE vehicles. But will there be enough business to justify the time and expense needed to train technicians? And would those dealerships or other retrofitters be exposed to liability if something goes haywire with a customer's vehicle?

It's easy for me to loiter on the sidelines and lob a bunch of cynical questions while people in the field who are exponentially smarter about vehicle engineering and mechanics tackle this business problem. In fairness, I do see areas where this idea would have a stronger chance at success.

Converted cars could be a lower-cost alternative to new EVs in regions that plan to ban new ICE vehicle sales, such as California and the European Union, which will do so by 2035. While automakers are furiously working to develop new EVs and working within the bounds of government incentive programs, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, there is no guarantee new EVs will come down in cost.

And perhaps commercial vehicles would have the greatest potential because hydrogen powertrains show promise in such applications. Businesses and governments would have the means to take the risk — if they have the appetite. But, of course, that would mean developing a hydrogen refueling network, which is in the embryonic stage.

I have no question about the nobility of Akio Toyoda's EV retrofitting vision. Whether there's a strong business case, at least at high volumes, is another matter.