Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Jan. 19, 2023
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Original Song
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Lady Gaga was snubbed in best actress last year for her performance in “House of Gucci.”
An Oscar-winner for original song already (“Shallow” from “A Star is Born”), will the Academy look elsewhere in favor of branch favorites (i.e., Diane Warren and Alexandre Desplat) or other popstars (Rihanna, Taylor Swift, The Weeknd)?
It may be close, but I’m forecasting the other Oscar-winning song crew behind “Good Afternoon” from “Spirited” to make the cut.
You can read the final Variety Awards Circuit column before nominations here. Nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Jan. 24.
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
| And The Predicted Nominees Are: |
|---|
| Rank | Film | Song Title | Distributor |
| 1 | “RRR” | “Naatu Naatu” by Kala Bhairava, M. M. Keeravani, Rahul Sipligunj | Variance Films |
| A fictitious story about two legendary revolutionaries and their journey away from home before they stLofty Sky Distributiond fighting for their country in the 1920s. |
| 2 | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | “Lift Me Up” by Tems, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Ryan Coogler | Marvel Studios |
The nation of Wakanda is pitted against intervening world powers as they mourn the loss of their king T’Challa.
|
| 3 | “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” | “Ciao Papa” by Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz and Guillermo del Toro | Netflix |
A darker version of the classic children’s fairy tale of a wooden puppet that transforms into a real living boy.
|
| 4 | “Tell It Like a Woman” | “Applause” by Diane Warren | Samuel Goldwyn Films |
| Stories of women, both in front of and behind the camera. |
| 5 | “Spirited” | “Good Afternoon” by Khiyon Hursey, Sukari Jones, Benj Pasek, Justin Paul, Mark Sonnenblick | Apple Original Films |
A musical version of Charles Dickens’s story of a miserly misanthrope who is taken on a magical journey.
|
| Next in Line |
| 6 | “Top Gun: Maverick” | “Hold My Hand” by Lady Gaga and Bloodpop | Paramount Pictures |
| After thirty years, Maverick is still pushing the envelope as a top naval aviator, but must confront ghosts of his past when he leads TOP GUN’s elite graduates on a mission that demands the ultimate sacrifice from those chosen to fly it. |
| 7 | “A Man Called Otto” | “Til You’re Home” by David Hodges and Rita Wilson | Sony Pictures |
| Otto is a grump who’s given up on life following the loss of his wife and wants to end it all. When a young family moves in nearby, he meets his match in quick-witted Marisol, leading to a friendship that will turn his world around. |
| 8 | “Till” | “Stand Up” by Jazmine Sullivan and D’Mile | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
| In 1955, after Emmett Till is murdered in a brutal lynching, his mother vows to expose the racism behind the attack while working to have those involved brought to justice. |
| 9 | “White Noise” | “New Body Rhumba” by LCD Soundsystem | Netflix |
| Dramatizes a contemporary American family’s attempts to deal with the mundane conflicts of everyday life while grappling with the universal mysteries of love, death, and the possibility of happiness in an uncertain world. |
| 10 | “Where the Crawdads Sing” | “Carolina” by Taylor Swift | Sony Pictures |
| A woman who raised herself in the marshes of the Deep South becomes a suspect in the murder of a man with whom she was once involved. |
| Other Top-Tier Contenders |
| 11 | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” by The Weeknd | 20th Century Studios |
| 12 | “Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me” | “My Mind and Me” by Selena Gomez | Apple Original Films |
| 13 | “The Voice of Dust and Ash” | “Dust & Ash” by J. Ralph | Matilda Productions |
| 14 | “Everything Everywhere All at Once” | “This is a Life” by David Byrne, Ryan Lott and Mitski | A24 |
| 15 | “Amsterdam” | “Time” by Drake, Giveon Evans, Jahaan Akil Sweet and Daniel Pemberton | 20th Century Studios |
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.
2022 category winner: "No Time to Die" by Billie Eilish and Finneas from "No Time to Die" (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
