At 5 p.m. PT, voting for the 95th Academy Awards nominations closed.
It seems mundane, but we venture into the unknown each year, trying to determine the tastes of over 9,500 Academy members. I’ve had dozens of conversations with voters, industry experts and awards strategists, trying to determine which way the Academy could be leaning when the nominees are announced on Jan. 24.
The last beat of influence on the Oscar race was from the Critics Choice ceremony, where “Everything Everywhere All at Once” triumphed with five wins including best picture and director.
Many precursors give clues to what a particular category could look like. However, with voting now closed, we are flying blind without the Writers Guild Award nominations, which come out after Oscar noms are announced, USC Scripter Awards (indicator for adapted screenplay), ACE Eddies (a major indicator for editing) and BAFTA noms (strongest clue on where the British voting bloc is putting its love).
Here are some things I’ve learned from conversations with voters:
“Top Gun: Maverick” love is real and could go all the way.
“Top Gun: Maverick” is beloved, and many members indicate this is their best picture pick or ranked incredibly high on their ballots. Discussions with members of the acting branch have not indicated the alleged “fifth spot” is going to Tom Cruise, but you can choose virtually anyone (Hugh Jackman, Paul Mescal, etc.) and place your bets.
An unspoken secret: many voters don’t love “The Fabelmans.”
When asking about “The Fabelmans,” there are many passionate admirers of the family drama based on director Steven Spielberg’s life. However, a prominent member of the producers’ branch shared with Variety: “I really didn’t like it.”
Many discussions have been had with other members about their unenthusiastic response to the Universal Pictures film. This does not signal a shocking “Fabelmans” best picture or directing snub, but it could hint at key misses coming on Tuesday morning. The same goes for Todd Field’s “Tár,” which is looking to come up short in some tech races but still has hopes to pop up in cinematography and editing.
“Everything Everywhere’s” fate depends on the international members.
The international members are the hardest to gauge this time around. They’ve been a clutch demographic for successful showings like “The Father” (2020) and Penélope Cruz for “Parallel Mothers” (2021). The problem is many movies are splitting that love such as “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Living,” “RRR” and “Triangle of Sadness.” Even “Tár” eats into the demographic.
When it comes to “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” the big night at the Critics Choice Awards surely helped, but the general consensus is that it is loved by younger Academy members and divided with older ones. While many feel confident about the Daniels’ placement in the best director race (which is a smart choice), I’ve been burned too many times by that branch to trust their judgments all the time. People suggest we need to see if the international voters come aboard.
Possible category switcharoos, and the search for the lone screenplay and “WTF?” nominees.
I’ve shared my theory with actors’ branch members that Michelle Williams’ SAG miss could be explained by the NomCom expecting to see her in the supporting actress category for “The Fabelmans.” At least two branch voters tell Variety they voted for the four-time nominee in supporting actress. Interestingly, that’s not the only lead/supporting switch I came across.
Brendan Gleeson had at least two mentions alongside his co-star Colin Farrell for “The Banshees of Inisherin” in best actor, rather than supporting, where he’s campaigned. He would be an interesting “fifth slot” selection, but would likely doom any hopes of Farrell winning in the end (or himself).
Traditionally, in the expanded era, we’ve seen a screenplay nominee with no other mentions and an actor who shocks, without any precursors. In the case of the writer, some suspects include “Aftersun” and “Triangle of Sadness” (if they come up short in other categories), “She Said” (without Carey Mulligan) and “Glass Onion” (without Janelle Moná