PremiumRishi Sunak is caught in a political crisis. Just months after taking office as prime minister, Sunak is dealing with major economic troubles, a meltdown in the UK’s public health system and a broken healthcare system. With poll after poll indicating that Sunak’s Conservatives are likely to lose a general election, Mint takes a look at why Sunak’s government is struggling to stay afloat.
Sunak took office in October 2022 and ended a year of political instability that saw two prime ministers lose their jobs. While Sunak’s Conservative Party was widely unpopular and was expected to lose ground to the opposition Labour Party, Sunak’s youth and his reputation for competence allowed some to hope that he would turn the party and the country around.
However, a series of election polls show that hasn’t happened. Sunak’s Conservative Party lags 20 percentage points behind the opposition Labour Party while many prominent party leaders, including Sunak, are expected to lose their seats at the 2024 General election.
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One of Sunak’s major problems is the economic crisis in the UK. Partly because of the war in Ukraine and other economic shocks, the UK’s economy is expected to shrink by 0.4% in 2023. At the same time, the UK’s high inflation rate is likely to continue. Inflation hit a 40-year high in October last year and have seriously damaged the country’s households.
This has been compounded by a breakdown in the UK’s government services in recent weeks. For example, the country’s National Health Service, which is government-run, seems to have broken down. Years of alleged under-investment by the Conservative government has meant that staff are underpaid and healthcare capacity has not expanded. British citizens now have to wait weeks before they can see a doctor and get medical care.
Even as Sunak is grappling with this crisis, public sector workers who are dissatisfied with their working conditions and salaries have gone on strike. Sunak has tried to enact legislation that would prevent these tens of thousands of workers from striking. However, 60% of the public supports the striking workers and even members of Sunak’s own party have urged him to negotiate with the strikers.
Then there’s the UK’s massive illegal migration problem. For the last few years, the country has had to deal with the “small boats" crisis. Refugees and asylum seekers have gotten onto small boats and crossed the English channel in hopes of starting a new life in the UK. Last year, over 40,000 people illegally tried to seek asylum in this fashion. Sunak’s Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, acknowledged that the crisis has gotten out of control.
Sunak has not been inactive during this crisis. He recently unveiled a five-point plan that aims to halve inflation and restore economic growth. Part of his plan also involves an effort to stop the small boats crisis. He recently signed a deal with French President Emmaneul Macron to stop illegal migrants from using French territory to cross the seas into Britain. He is also continuing a controversial deal with Rwanda to deport illegal migrants coming into the UK to Rwanda. .
This has worked partly. Polls of British voters find that Sunak is more trusted than his opponent, Labour leader Keir Starmer, when it comes to cutting inflation and growing the economy. British citizens also believe that Sunak will do more to combat the illegal migration crisis than his opponent.
The problem is that voters have become increasingly pessimistic about the Conservative Party’s ability to solve the UK’s problems. Recent polls indicated that 55% of people believed that Sunak would not be able to keep his promise to halve the inflation rate in the coming year.
A real test for Sunak’s leadership will come in May this year, when the UK will hold a series of local elections. With the economic crisis still raging on and the Conservative Party as unpopular as ever, Sunak now faces the monumental task of avoiding defeat in May’s local elections. Should he fail in this task, the crisis that besets his government will only continue to deepen.
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