BankservAfrica, the largest automated payments clearing house in Africa, says its index tracking activity in SA’s economy snapped a six-month streak of declines in December, almost recovering to a level seen in January 2022.
BankservAfrica’s economic transactions index (BETI) makes use of data from the millions of transactions it processes daily, and it climbed 1.7% year-on-year to 132.1 points in the last month of the year. The report uses 2005 as a benchmark of 100 points, reflecting the standardised value of all economic transactions in the South Africa economy at seasonally adjusted real constant prices.
The monthly, quarterly and annual improvements in the index all signal some improvement in the broader SA economy, BankservAfrica said, with the improvement coming despite "the ongoing, dismal economic context."
Grim December
"The welcomed improvement to the BETI occurred against the broader economic context that has remained fairly grim during December, with load shedding continuing, interest rates and inflation remaining at elevated levels and the global economic slowdown gaining momentum," said independent economist Elize Kruger, who helped compile the report, in a statement.
The latest movement in the BETI is a reflection of the South African economy’s resilience, she said, as well as the annual festive season spend that contributed to the number of electronic transactions pushing to an all-time high of 143.6 million, an 11.4% year-on-year increase and 2.7% up on a monthly basis.
While the improvement in the BETI for December is encouraging, there are indications that we could expect 'more of the same' in 2023, as the main challenges of load shedding and households under pressure from elevated inflation and interest rates are likely to remain, the report reads.
"All indications also point to a less supportive global environment as the International Monetary Fund recently warned that a third of the global economy could be in a recession this year, adding to the risks for the South African economy from an export and commodity price perspective. One silver lining is the expectation that consumer inflation should moderate and provide some relief for many South Africans."