Dear Reader,
The Panorama newsletter is sent to Moneycontrol Pro subscribers on market days. It offers easy access to stories published on Moneycontrol Pro and gives a little extra by setting out a context or an event or trend that investors should keep track of.On Friday, the National Statistics Office said that real gross domestic product (GDP) this financial year will grow 7 percent, better than the Reserve Bank of India’s estimates of 6.8 percent. Here are five stories that will help you understand the numbers better.
The GDP growth numbers appear very robust, but may not be actually so, argues Aparna Iyer. “The CSO estimates imply that Indian producers will rely more on foreigners and the government to consume their wares than on citizens in the second half of FY23. Economists point out that private consumption is expected to shrink by 0.2 percent in the second half from a stellar 17.2 percent growth in the first six months.” Read more here.
Consumption is not the only worry. Manufacturing is stagnant. Real growth in gross value added (GVA) in manufacturing is just 1.6 percent from a year ago. When was the last time manufacturing growth was so abysmal? Find out here.
The one sector where optimism abounds is exports. But with many big export destinations staring at recessions or slowdowns, are these numbers feasible? Take a look here.
A big takeaway from the numbers is that nominal GDP growth has been projected at 15.4 percent, a huge jump from the Budget 2022-23 estimates of 11.1 percent. That gives the government elbow room to spend more without upsetting the fiscal deficit target. Details here.
The markets are looking up today. The Sensex is nearly 1,000 points up at the time of writing. Is it the sunny GDP forecast or something else? Does India’s bright GDP outlook guarantee runaway equity returns? The answer is here.
Investing insights from our research team
Dabur India: Operating margin may run into stress points
How much steam is left in IDBI Bank’s rally?
Titan Company: Q3 revenue growth broadly in line with expectations; long-term triggers intact
What else are we reading?
Budget 2023 should offer growth steroids to small businesses
The Eastern Window: Military goals behind China’s investment plans in Nepal
Chart of the Day: Global food inflation is down, but not out
Full extent of slowdown in 2023 not priced in: Aurodeep Nandi, India economist, Nomura
We need to pay more attention to misaligned signals on the global economy (republished from the FT)
Green hydrogen mission a critical foray for India’s net zero journey
Technical Picks: Balkrishna Industries, Cummins, Gold Bees, Copper, TCS and USD-INR (These are published every trading day before markets open and can be read on the app).
Ravi KrishnanMoneycontrol Pro