New Delhi: India’s latest growth estimate offers relief. According to the statistics ministry, gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow 7% in 2022-23. This is better than the 6.8% forecast by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) about a month ago. Though it is slower than last year’s 8.7% expansion, it shows that our economy’s revival is holding up. Since last year’s off the-charts figure was a one-off, thanks to the preceding year’s covid contraction, this year’s growth represents an actual gain of significance after two years lost to the pandemic. The hope, seen in many indicators, is that India has also reversed its pre-pandemic slowdown. The mood is upbeat, with laggard sectors picking up and investments finally looking up. Note, though, that the ministry’s nominal GDP growth projection of 15.4% far exceeds the 11.1% budget estimate. This translates into a tax bounce, reflecting high inflation this year and making fiscal space for the government to cover an expense overshoot. Given its enlarged debt burden and payback bill, running large gaps between real and nominal GDP may be tempting. But we must stick with low inflation and growth that’s mostly real.
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