Pakistan's Afghan policy failing in the face of an assertive Taliban

NEW DELHI: Pakistan's Afghan policy is unravelling.
Once considered Islamabad and ISI's protégé, the Taliban have of late shown an increasingly assertive, and even confrontational approach in dealing with Pakistan on frictional issues.
The Chaman border firing incident from early December, in which 9 people were killed on the Pakistani side, is a stark reminder to the changed equations.
The Taliban cannot be remote controlled from across the border- a reality that is now hitting home for Islamabad.
No longer a 'strategic depth'
Few doubt that the Taliban's successful takeover of Afghanistan- that sent the US packing- was covertly aided by Pakistan and its agencies. There were celebrations in Pakistan when the Islamic hardliners seized power in Kabul. Then-Pakistan PM Imran Khan is on record stating "the Taliban had broken the shackles of slavery.”
The erstwhile ISI chief himself travelled to Kabul to oversee formation of the Taliban cabinet in August 2021, and ensured that the "moderates" within the Taliban are sidelined in the new order.
But Islamabad did not get the returns it expected. The "strategic depth" that Pakistan had hoped for from its historical patronage of the Taliban seems to have quickly disappeared.
Pakistan's miscalculations
Pakistan thought it can prevail over the Taliban, specially in matters of security interests.
But soon after seizing power, the Taliban released members of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP) from Afghan jails. The group has for long waged war against the Pakistan government, with a declared objective to seize power and establish a strict Islamic rule.
The ISI chief could not pull off a Taliban-brokered peace deal with the TTP during his trip to Kabul.
There have been friction over the border issue as well.
The Taliban do not accept the Durand Line, drawn by the British over a century ago, as a settled border with Pakistan. The recent flare ups in Chaman and elsewhere were triggered by Pakistan constructing a border fence.
However the Taliban's confrontational attitude is something quite new.
"The Afghan Taliban think they defeated the US and therefore they can also defeat Pakistan. This may be a misplaced notion, but it certainly creates heightened tensions between the two nations," says an opinion piece published in Afghanistan's Khaama Press news agency.
The killing of al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan in a US drone strike dealt another blow to the Pakistan-Taliban relation, as Pakistan is believed to have allowed use of its airspace for the operation.
Uptick in terrorism incidents in Pakistan
The graph of terrorist incidents and related casualties in Pakistan has shot north since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 2021.
Unsurprisingly, the TTP has claimed or been blamed for most of these incidents.
Pakistan's interior minister Rana Sanaullah has said TTP has between 7,000 to 10,000 fighters in the Afghan border area, and the group has been further bolstered by the success of the Afghan Taliban.
There are talks now within the Pakistani establishment of launching another major military operation against the TTP. Pakistan has carried out several operations against the group in the past two decades, but haven't quite managed to eliminate it completely.

The Afghan imbroglio speaks poorly of Pakistan's reading of the situation, its unrealistic assumptions and flaws in policy making.
"Pakistan was well aware that the Taliban planned to gradually take over Afghanistan, but chose not to tell the US. Even after the fall of Kabul, Pakistan tried to maintain its support for the Afghan Taliban while simultaneously keeping the US happy, an ambiguous policy that left no one happy at the end of the day," the opinion piece further says.