It’s not over yet! How worried should India be as China battles a surge in COVID infections?

India is on alert as China and other countries are reporting a surge in COVID-19 cases this winter.

Union health minister Mansukh Mandaviya held a review meeting of top health officials and experts today (21 December) on the coronavirus situation.

He wrote on Twitter after the meeting, “COVID is not over yet. I have directed all concerned to be alert and strengthen surveillance. We are prepared to manage any situation.”

Dr VK Paul, Member-Health, NITI Aayog, has urged people to mask up in crowded places, saying “this is all the more important for people with comorbidities or are of higher age”.

He has also called for people, especially senior citizens, to take booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine.

A day earlier, the health ministry had asked all states and UTs to sequence all COVID positive samples daily.

“In view of the sudden spurt of cases being witnessed in Japan, United States of America, Republic of Korea, Brazil and China, it is essential to gear up the whole genome sequencing of positive case samples to track the variants through Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) network. Such an exercise will enable timely detection of newer variants, if any, circulating in the country and will facilitate undertaking of requisite public health measures for the same”, Union health secretary Rajesh Bhushan had said in a letter.

What is the current coronavirus situation in India and China? How worried should India be as neighbouring China grapples with wave a of infections after relaxing its stringent zero-COVID policy? Let’s take a look.

India’s COVID numbers

India logged 131 fresh cases in the last 24 hours, which pushed the overall COVID caseload to 4,46,76,330, according to the Union health ministry data on Wednesday.

With three new fatalities, the COVID death toll has reached 5,30,680.

The active cases in the country stand at 3,408, currently.

As per the health ministry data, 220.01 crore doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered under the nationwide inoculation drive so far.

China’s COVID woes

The Asian giant is witnessing a spike in infections since it eased its zero COVID strategy that involved snap lockdowns, strict quarantine and isolation protocols.

The U-turn came last month in the wake of widespread protests that had erupted across the country after a fire killed 10 people in the western Xinjiang region.

The country is seeing a strain on hospitals due to a huge influx of patients and a shortage of flu medicines.

Hospitals in many cities in China have been overwhelmed amid a spike in cases. AP (Representational Image)

Questions are being raised on China’s official COVID death count after a  crematorium in Beijing recently told foreign media that they were overwhelmed with bodies.

Although the stringent COVID policy kept a check on the transmission of the virus in China, insulating a large section of the population from being infected, it did not develop natural immunity.

The country has ramped up efforts to expand intensive care units and build more fever clinics amid its current COVID woes.

The outbreak has also raised worries of being spilled over to other countries.

ALSO READ: Why China’s official COVID death count doesn’t stack up

The US has expressed concern that the new infections in China might trigger new mutations of the virus.

“When it comes to the current outbreak in China, we want to see this addressed,” US state department spokesman Ned Price said in a briefing on Monday, as per Bloomberg.

“We know that anytime the virus is spreading in the wild that it has the potential to mutate and to pose a threat to people everywhere,” he added.

Alex Cook, vice-dean for research at the National University of Singapore’s Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health said, as per Times of India, “Every new epidemic wave in another country brings the risk of new variants, and this risk is higher the bigger the outbreak, and the current wave in China is shaping up to be big”.

He added that the country will have to experience a large wave of COVID-19 infections if the pandemic is to reach an endemic stage in the future.

ALSO READ: ‘Be prepared’, China cautions rural hospitals as COVID cases spike and migration begins after ‘zero covid’ abandoned

Should India worry?

Experts are saying no.

News18 reported citing government sources that INSACOG officials told the health minister in the meeting today that there was no need to panic.

“The minister has been informed that there is no evidence of increased severity of COVID-19 cases in the country. Hence, there is no need for creating panic. What we need to do is be on alert. The minister has directed officials to increase vigil accordingly,” a government official told News18.

Dr NK Arora, Chairman of the COVID-19 working group NTAGI echoed similar sentiments saying we should keep track of the situation in China but there was nothing to be alarmed about.

Experts have asked people to take booster doses. PTI (Representational Image)

“I would say that there is nothing to be panicked about. There is no need for getting too much worried. The system is very vigilant, we need to be very vigilant. As far as genomic surveillance is concerned, this is the most important part we are doing, genomic surveillance of individuals with symptoms,” he said, as per Mint. 

Former AIIMS Delhi director, Dr Randeep Guleria, also said that India is in a better position than China “because our vaccination strategy has been very successful, most of the people in the high-risk group have taken booster doses and natural infection has happened”.

“We can see that the cases are not rising anywhere. But we need to be vigilant. Proper surveillance is needed so that if cases rise anywhere we pick it up at the earliest and conduct testing so that it can be seen that no new variant is coming up and not spreading further,” he was quoted as saying by ANI. 

Serum Institute of India (SII) CEO Adar Poonawalla has also urged people not to panic, and to adhere to the government’s COVID-19 guidelines.

“The news of rising COVID cases coming out of China is concerning, we need not panic given our excellent vaccination coverage and track record. We must continue to trust and follow the guidelines set by the Government of India and @MoHFW_INDIA,” Poonawala said in a tweet.

Moreover, BF.7, a sub-variant of Omicron, which is driving the current wave of infections in China has already been in India for the past months.

“I do not see significant spillover impact on India,” Dr Anurag Agrawal, who was previously associated with INSACOG told Moneycontrol. 

“Population immunity is much higher in India and our research suggests that most people have already been infected with Omicron, with a large fraction having had both Delta and Omicron infections,” he added.

Dr Sangita Reddy, Joint Managing Director at Apollo Hospitals, has called for the Indian government to regulate travel to and from China.

Dr Aviral Vatsa, a physician with NHS, Scotland, told The Quint’s FIT that close monitoring is needed if any new variant emerges.

“Genome sequencing is going to be very important. Not only for the variants – not only for the variants developing in China, but also everywhere in the world. COVID is spreading in other countries – some countries are testing, some are not. But the virus is doing it’s job, we are not. So, along with keeping a close watch on China and developments, we should keep a closer watch on what’s happening around us – with regard to testing and tracing,” Vatsa suggested.

With inputs from agencies

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