Juggernaut, Congress and debutant: Triangular focus on Gujarat election verdict today

AHMEDABAD: Your ruling on parties' poll promises will be delivered today. It is the moment of truth for all the principal players in the Gujarat election, with the BJP looking for a fairytale beginning to a new tenure after being in power for 27 years.
The Congress will hope to break out of political wilderness, while the AAP will look for a foothold in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state.
Exit polls have predicted that the BJP is poised to ride to power in Gujarat for a record seventh time. Those polls have also prophesied a drop in seats for the Congress, and signalled that the AAP will make its debut in the assembly with a few seats.
If the forecast is accurate, it will be an unambiguous affirmation of Modi's powerful connection with the people of Gujarat. Indeed, Modi underscored that link in his rallies and the BJP projected the election as a mandate for his leadership and persona.
Modi and the BJP's notables stressed during canvassing that Gujarat's vote in 2022 will determine where it stands 25 years from now when India celebrates the centenary of its freedom. The counting of votes will begin at 8am today, at 37 centres across the state under the vigil of 182 election officers assisted by 494 assistant election officers.
The 5% drop in the turnout as compared to the 2017 assembly election has divided pollsters in their assessment of the impact on parties' tallies.
The 2022 poll precipitated a strong triangular contest in the state in more than two decades as the AAP entered the electoral arena claiming to be the only viable opposition when compared to what it said was a "weak Congress". The AAP fielded candidates on all 182 seats.
Result will show impact of BJP's culling experiment
The poll was held amid the pall of the Morbi tragedy in which 135 people lost their lives. Yet, the campaigning was bereft of any major emotive issue. In the 2017 election, the angst of caste and communities ran high. This time, people's votes were sought on the planks of development, freebies, communal safety, and national security.
The state BJP's spokesperson, Yamal Vyas, said his party will break all previous records. "People will endorse the development accomplished in Gujarat under the leadership of PM Modi," he said.
The results will have long-term implications for all stakeholders. The Congress had in 2017 delivered one of its best performances in decades, winning 77 seats. The 2022 result will demonstrate if it was able to arrest its political slide. The party did not announce the CM nominee and Rahul Gandhi showed little interest in canvassing, taking only one break from his Bharat Jodo Yatra to attend a Gujarat rally. The party practically had to fend for itself.
"The low voter turnout is an indication of the voter's mood against the BJP. People have voted for a change," said Gujarat Congress spokesperson Manish Doshi.
The stakes are higher for the new entrant, the AAP. A 6% vote share will help it attain the status of a national party. More importantly, if the AAP gets a vote share of between 10% and 15% as most exit polls suggest, the Kejriwal-led party will get a place in Modi's backyard. The AAP's performance will also be a barometer of people's response to its offer of freebies. The inducements included free power and a monthly fixed stipend for unemployed youth and women. The vote share of the BJP and the Congress that the AAP ate into will be scrutinized. An AAP leader in Gujarat, Kailash Gadhvi, said that people have rejected both the BJP and the Congress. "People have voted for a change in favour of the AAP, which will form the next government in the state," he said.
EVM machines will unlock the fate of 20 members of CM Bhupendra Patel's cabinet, 12 ex-ministers of the Vijay Rupani government, 13 Congress turncoats who fought on BJP tickets, and 19 BJP rebels who contested as independents seeking revenge.
The spotlight will also be on the politicians formerly known as the 'Three Young Turks': Hardik Patel who had led the fight for the Patidar quota; Alpesh Thakor who had advocated the preservation of the OBC quota; and Jignesh Mevani, the champion of Dalit rights. Hardik's electoral fortunes are being watched with much interest because he has made his electoral debut as a candidate of the BJP, a party he had vehemently derided in 2017.
The results will decide whether the BJP's experimentation of sidelining its heavyweights - at the cost of inviting rebellion in some instances - paid off electoral dividends.
The BJP will bank on its stranglehold on urban seats, where it has registered superlative performances election after election. Of the total 45 urban seats in municipal corporation areas, the BJP holds 38, leaving the Congress with only seven.
The disposition of the politically influential Patidar vote bank will play a vital role in the judgment. Spurred by the Patidar agitation, a chunk of the community had vented anger by voting against the BJP in 2017. The disenchantment cost the BJP many seats, especially in rural areas of Saurashtra and north Gujarat. The community which has traditionally sided with the BJP appears to have been placated now, observers say.
Thirty-eight women contested in the 2022 election, the highest ever in Gujarat's poll history. The BJP fielded 14 women candidates and the Congress, 14. The electorate had sent 13 women to the Gujarat legislative assembly in 2017.