The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel has revised its forecast for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth downwards to 6.8%. In its last policy statement on September 30, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projected India’s GDP growth for the ongoing fiscal at 7%.
"Even after this revision in our growth projections, India will still remain among the fastest-growing major economy," Governor Das said. The biggest risks to the outlook remain global slowdown and tightening financial conditions.
Das said MPC has forecast Q3 GDP growth at 4.4%, and Q4 at 4.2%, with risks evenly balanced. The first quarter of the next financial year is set to grow at 7.1 %.
India's GDP grew at 6.3% during the second quarter (July-September), in-line with most market participants' expectations.
Tuesday saw a couple of prominent agencies turning bullish on India and mentioning that among the developing markets, India remains a solid bet.
In comparison to other emerging market economies (EMEs), India is less affected by growth slowdowns in the US, China and the euro area, according to a report from World Bank.
It added India's relative resilience comes from its solid economic fundamentals, significant foreign exchange reserves, available policy space and prudent macroeconomic management.
India's capacity to safeguard against external macro-financial risks depends on its domestic resilience, external investment position, external buffers, and policy space to mitigate risks, according to the report.
World Bank said India's economy is well placed to weather the difficult external environment compared to other major EMEs - accounting for 84 per cent of the total EME nominal GDP - especially when compared to India's economic situation in the immediate run-up to the 2013 taper tantrum.
In its December edition of the Global Economic Outlook, Fitch projected India's GDP to grow at 7 per cent in the current fiscal, at a slower rate of 6.2 per cent in 2023-24 and at 6.9 per cent in 2024-25. "India is expected to record one of the fastest growth rates among emerging markets in our Fitch20 coverage this year," it said.
Research firm Nomura, however, said that India’s growth is likely to disappoint at 4.5% in 2023 due to global spillovers, prompting 75bp of rate cuts in H2 2023, while stronger fundamentals set the stage for a rebound in 2024 (6.7%).
"Even after this revision in our growth projections, India will still remain among the fastest-growing major economy," Governor Das said. The biggest risks to the outlook remain global slowdown and tightening financial conditions.
Das said MPC has forecast Q3 GDP growth at 4.4%, and Q4 at 4.2%, with risks evenly balanced. The first quarter of the next financial year is set to grow at 7.1 %.
India's GDP grew at 6.3% during the second quarter (July-September), in-line with most market participants' expectations.
Tuesday saw a couple of prominent agencies turning bullish on India and mentioning that among the developing markets, India remains a solid bet.
In comparison to other emerging market economies (EMEs), India is less affected by growth slowdowns in the US, China and the euro area, according to a report from World Bank.
It added India's relative resilience comes from its solid economic fundamentals, significant foreign exchange reserves, available policy space and prudent macroeconomic management.
India's capacity to safeguard against external macro-financial risks depends on its domestic resilience, external investment position, external buffers, and policy space to mitigate risks, according to the report.
World Bank said India's economy is well placed to weather the difficult external environment compared to other major EMEs - accounting for 84 per cent of the total EME nominal GDP - especially when compared to India's economic situation in the immediate run-up to the 2013 taper tantrum.
In its December edition of the Global Economic Outlook, Fitch projected India's GDP to grow at 7 per cent in the current fiscal, at a slower rate of 6.2 per cent in 2023-24 and at 6.9 per cent in 2024-25. "India is expected to record one of the fastest growth rates among emerging markets in our Fitch20 coverage this year," it said.
Research firm Nomura, however, said that India’s growth is likely to disappoint at 4.5% in 2023 due to global spillovers, prompting 75bp of rate cuts in H2 2023, while stronger fundamentals set the stage for a rebound in 2024 (6.7%).
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