Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress – What Do We Make of Keke Palmer’s NYFCC Win for ‘Nope?’
Other contenders include Angela Bassett, Jessie Buckley, Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss and Stephanie Hsu
Universal Pictures
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: One of the surprises during the New York Film Critics Circle winners announcement was the naming of Keke Palmer for best supporting actress for her turn as the UFO-chasing, wise-cracking sister in Universal Pictures’ “Nope.” The sci-fi horror flick from Oscar winner Jordan Peele has been bubbling on the circuit since its July release, making stops at TIFF with a special screening and Palmer being singled out in reviews. While her performance is more in line with a lead performer, this recognition could give her campaign the boost it needs heading into voting for SAG nominations, which begin on Monday, Dec. 5.
It’s worth noting the NYFCC winners for best supporting actress haven’t faired too well when translating to Oscar nominees. While you can point to Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”) and Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”) as success stories, critical favorites like Kristen Stewart (“Clouds of Sils Maria”), Tiffany Haddish (“Girls Trip”) and last year’s Kathryn Hunter (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”) never really took off when the major noms were announced, including at the Oscars.
The entire category is still in a state of flux. While there are many beating the drum for Angela Bassett in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” or any women from “Women Talking” notably Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy and Judith Ivey, we simply don’t know which way the race will swing.
There are also the multiple women from “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu), “Glass Onion” (Kate Hudson and Janelle Monáe), “The Whale” (Hong Chau and Sadie Sink) and “The Woman King” (Thuso Mbedu and Lashana Lynch).
Nina Hoss is hopefully headed for an “attachment” vote to her co-star Cate Blanchett in “Tár” but make no mistake, her performance is precisely calculated and executed and is one of the best of the year.
After premiering this week, “Emancipation” received mixed reviews from the first drop of critics’ takes. However, Charmaine Bingwa (on the Variety Awards Circuit Podcast this week), demonstrates how to make the most of limited screen time.
(L to R) Nina Hoss stars as Sharin Goodnow and Cate Blanchett stars as Lydia Tár in director Todd Field’s TÁR, a Focus Features release. Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features Courtesy of Focus Features
And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank
Name
Film
Distributor
1
Angela Bassett
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
The nation of Wakanda is pitted against intervening world powers as they mourn the loss of their king T’Challa.
2
Jamie Lee Curtis
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
3
Kerry Condon
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
4
Jessie Buckley
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
5
Nina Hoss
“Tár”
Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
Next in Line
6
Stephanie Hsu
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
7
Keke Palmer
“Nope”
Universal Pictures
The residents of a lonely gulch in inland California bear witness to an uncanny and chilling discovery.
8
Carey Mulligan
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
New York Times reporters Megan Twohey and Jodi Kantor break one of the most important stories in a generation – a story that helped ignite a movement and shattered decades of silence around the subject of sexual assault in Hollywood.
9
Claire Foy
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
10
Janelle Monáe
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Netflix
Famed Southern detective Benoit Blanc travels to Greece for his latest case.
