Congress, BJP cite winnability in Gujarat polls; Muslims lose in ticket run

The last time the Congress fielded 10 or more Muslims in Gujarat assembly polls was in 1995. And the sole minority member to contest in the history of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Gujarat was 24 years ago.
In Gujarat, 9% of the population, Muslims, have never had proportionate representation in the legislative assembly. Representation of Muslims in the state assembly has consistently dwindled, with both major political parties citing ‘winnability’ as the chief criterion.

While the Congress has six Muslims among the 140 candidates it has nominated so far, there isn’t a single one among the BJP’s 166. The minority wing of the Congress has sought 11 tickets for Muslims this election. However, the last time the number of Congress tickets given to Muslim candidates was in double digits was 27 years ago.
In the past four decades, the highest number of Muslim candidates the Congress has fielded was 17 in 1980, when former chief minister Madhavsinh Solanki successfully introduced his KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Ahmed Adivasi, Muslim) electoral arithmetic. The results were encouraging, with voters sending 12 Muslim candidates to the assembly. However, despite their success, the Congress, while pushing forward the KHAM formula, reduced its Muslim candidates to 11 in 1985. Eight were elected. By the 1990 assembly election, the BJP’s Ram Janmabhoomi campaign had paved the way for Hindutva politics. The BJP and its ally, the Janata Dal, did not field any Muslim candidates in that election, and the Congress fielded 11, of whom only two were successful. In 1995, all 10 Muslims that the Congress fielded lost. Usmanga ni Devdiwala was the only Muslim MLA elected as an independent from Jamalpur. Muslim representation improved slightly in 1998. The Congress fielded nine Muslims, and five won. The BJP also fielded a Muslim candidate, Abdulgani Kureshi, from the Vagra seat in Bharuch district, who lost. He remains the only Muslim the BJP, since its inception, has fielded in Gujarat’s as sembly elections. Since then, the BJP has not given its ticket to a Muslim candidate. The Godhra train burning in 2002 and the ensuing riots in the state polarized voters. With elections in the state increasingly becoming a two-party battle, the Congress gave Muslims just five tickets in the 2002 election. Since then, the party’s distribution of tickets to Muslim candidates has never exceeded six.
The BJP has cited ‘winnability’ as the sole criterion in choosing candidates. Its minority cell president, Mohsin Lokhandwala, said, “Except for reserved seats, the party only considers the winnability of a candidate. Not only for assembly elections but even in nagarpalika or municipal corporation elections, what matters is the candidate’s ability to win. ” The BJP fields Muslim candidates during civic elections in areas predominantly populated by the minority community.
This sentiment seems to have seeped into the Congress as well. Its MLA from the Khadia-Jamalpur constituency, Imran Khedawala, said, “Political parties consider the winnability of a candidate after looking at the equations of a constituency. The Congress gives tickets to minorities, but that also depends on local equations. ”Khedawala represents the only assembly constituency where Muslim voters form a majority (61%). However, the Chhipa subcommunity to which Khedawala belongs insists on the MLA from this seat being one of them. The Congress fielding a Muslim candidate from another subcommunity in 2012 led to former Congress MLA Sabir Kabliwala, a Chhipa, contesting as an independent. This led to Muslim votes being split and resulted in a win for the BJP candidate. In the outgoing assembly, the Congress has three Muslim MLAs – Imran Khedawala from JamalpurKhadia, Gyassudin Shaikh from Dariapur and Javid Pirzada from Wankaner constituencies.
However, it is wary of the incursion of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) on seats where Muslim votes matter the most and not without reason. AIMIM wonseven seats in the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (AMC) election two years ago, hurting the Congress’s prospects in Jamalpur and Behrampura wards. Kabliwala, who defected from the Congress and was a factor in the party’s defeat in Jamalpur in 2012, is AIMIM’s chief in Gujarat.
With Muslims marginalized by what AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi calls majoritarian politics, the minority cell of the Congress must strive harder for a share of the pie.
The head of Congress’s minority cell, Wazir Khan, says, “We have asked for 11 tickets. It is a fact that minority representation in the house is negligible. After the 2002 riots, minority candidates on very few seats have been able to win. Leaders from the minority communities now play a significant role in the back-room strategy of the party.”
It remains to be seen how the party gives tickets to Muslims, especially as stalwart leader Ahmed Patel is no longer there to guide the state unit. A politician of the stature of Patel could also not manage his way to the Lok Sabha since the early 1990s, another reflection of the marginalization of Muslims in Gujarat’s electoral politics. The AIMIM, which is contesting the Gujarat election this year, has named five candidates so far, of whom four are Muslim. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has decided to field candidates on all seats, has three Muslims among its 157 candidates till now.