Negotiating the New Normal book review: Of pandemic, power and pursuit

Over 25 years ago, political scientist Francis Fukuyama proclaimed ‘end of history’, a political, economic or social system led by the West that would constitute the end-point of humanity’s socio-cultural evolution and the final form of human government. In the past, many thinkers have argued that a particular system is the ‘end of history’,  including Thomas More in Utopia, Friedrich Hegel and Karl Marx. It turns out that history is a lot more defiant than we think. The global financial crisis of 2008, geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic collectively led to a new world order, where the epicentre of power shifted from the West to the East.

In this regard, Saurav Jha’s new book, Negotiating the New Normal, raises important questions and nudges readers to explore India’s role in shaping a new global order in the post-pandemic world.The author suggests that even prior to the pandemic, the West seemed to be in the grip of what is called ‘secular stagnation’, a term first coined by economist Alvin Hansen in 1938, during the Great Depression, to describe an era of very low or no growth in a market-based economy. Though the expression turned out to be premature at the time, it describes the present state of Western economies accurately.

It is evident, looking at employment statistics. Unemployment in the US reached 14.7 percent during the pandemic, the number being particularly acute for undereducated professionals. Overall, the world lost more than 400 million full-time jobs. The systemic imbalance left millions to fend for themselves.

While new technologies like blockchain, artificial intelligence and 3D-printing will create new jobs, will it lift more boats than it sinks? Jha suggests that disruptions due to Covid-19 may well accelerate automation and lead to productivity gains, but to the detriment of the common worker.

While this reviewer does not share the author’s views, it is understandable where he is coming from. It is hard to predict the labour landscape in the future, but with the right training and new opportunities, it is possible to construct a new economic normal.

Russia’s Ukraine misadventure, Trump’s trade war with China, leadership change in Britain and
Brazil have, in a way, created a world with a leadership vacuum. Will India fill that gap or a new model will emerge?

The US dollar will continue to reign supreme. China’s debt-addled economy and political context makes it riskier than America, says Jha. That, however, does not mean that America’s position as world leader is secure. Inflation and unemployment, coupled with the American lack of leadership, open the window of possibilities to reimagine the world order.

If India is to play a meaningful role, it needs more democracy rather than less. It needs to become the destination of choice for technological innovation and social cohesion. In Jha’s bearish treatment of the potential of cryptocurrencies to create an inclusive financial system, he is perhaps dismissing the potential of the blockchain technology to create a new network state built on the cloud, powered by peer-to-peer transactions backed by publicly auditable, distributed ledger systems.

There are still unknown factors that must be explored. India needs to figure out its position on a range of political, economic and social factors, not only internally, but also while dealing with friendly and less friendly countries. After all, leadership isn’t just about friendship, it comes down to advancing common interests taking others along with you. That’s the larger case Jha makes through his analysis on the history of the future of India.

Negotiating the New Normal

By: Saurav Jha

Publisher: Hachette

Pages: 410

Price: Rs 699

Over 25 years ago, political scientist Francis Fukuyama proclaimed ‘end of history’, a political, economic or social system led by the West that would constitute the end-point of humanity’s socio-cultural evolution and the final form of human government. In the past, many thinkers have argued that a particular system is the ‘end of history’,  including Thomas More in Utopia, Friedrich Hegel and Karl Marx. It turns out that history is a lot more defiant than we think. The global financial crisis of 2008, geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic collectively led to a new world order, where the epicentre of power shifted from the West to the East. In this regard, Saurav Jha’s new book, Negotiating the New Normal, raises important questions and nudges readers to explore India’s role in shaping a new global order in the post-pandemic world.The author suggests that even prior to the pandemic, the West seemed to be in the grip of what is called ‘secular stagnation’, a term first coined by economist Alvin Hansen in 1938, during the Great Depression, to describe an era of very low or no growth in a market-based economy. Though the expression turned out to be premature at the time, it describes the present state of Western economies accurately. It is evident, looking at employment statistics. Unemployment in the US reached 14.7 percent during the pandemic, the number being particularly acute for undereducated professionals. Overall, the world lost more than 400 million full-time jobs. The systemic imbalance left millions to fend for themselves. While new technologies like blockchain, artificial intelligence and 3D-printing will create new jobs, will it lift more boats than it sinks? Jha suggests that disruptions due to Covid-19 may well accelerate automation and lead to productivity gains, but to the detriment of the common worker. While this reviewer does not share the author’s views, it is understandable where he is coming from. It is hard to predict the labour landscape in the future, but with the right training and new opportunities, it is possible to construct a new economic normal. Russia’s Ukraine misadventure, Trump’s trade war with China, leadership change in Britain and Brazil have, in a way, created a world with a leadership vacuum. Will India fill that gap or a new model will emerge? The US dollar will continue to reign supreme. China’s debt-addled economy and political context makes it riskier than America, says Jha. That, however, does not mean that America’s position as world leader is secure. Inflation and unemployment, coupled with the American lack of leadership, open the window of possibilities to reimagine the world order. If India is to play a meaningful role, it needs more democracy rather than less. It needs to become the destination of choice for technological innovation and social cohesion. In Jha’s bearish treatment of the potential of cryptocurrencies to create an inclusive financial system, he is perhaps dismissing the potential of the blockchain technology to create a new network state built on the cloud, powered by peer-to-peer transactions backed by publicly auditable, distributed ledger systems. There are still unknown factors that must be explored. India needs to figure out its position on a range of political, economic and social factors, not only internally, but also while dealing with friendly and less friendly countries. After all, leadership isn’t just about friendship, it comes down to advancing common interests taking others along with you. That’s the larger case Jha makes through his analysis on the history of the future of India. Negotiating the New Normal By: Saurav Jha Publisher: Hachette Pages: 410 Price: Rs 699