Dhamnagar defeat leaves underlying message for BJD

Odisha’s Dhamnagar has given its mandate, and it is clearly in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Its approach cohesive, the national party put up a spirited campaign led by Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan. It secured a decisive win in the by-election, the result of which was declared on Sunday. The stakes were high, given the seat belonged to the BJP and the party units responded in unison. Its nominee Suryabanshi Suraj, who will be the youngest legislator in the state assembly, polled 80,351 votes, handing Abanti Das, his rival from Biju Janata Dal, a defeat by 9,881 votes. Much as the regional party tries to make light of the loss by attributing it to the ‘sympathy factor’ which Suryabanshi had the advantage of, it knows history could come back to bite. 

Of the five by-elections the BJD has won handsomely since 2019, three went to kin of its own sitting MLAs. Should sympathy votes be the only factor, the BJP should not have yielded its holding seat in the Balasore by-election to the ruling party. While the saffron outfit has reasons to feel upbeat following its Dhamnagar victory, the defeat will rankle the regional party.

Since it rose to power in 2000, the Naveen Patnaik-led BJD has suffered only two by-election losses—in Talasara and Laxmipur assembly segments. It has not lost a single bypoll after 2009, even after severing ties with BJP. That’s why Dhamnagar should be a worry for the party. The bypoll has thrown up two fault lines that seem to have developed lately. The BJD has faced an actual rebel candidate in an election for the first time. Earlier, disgruntlement and rebellion had been managed and neutralised well before the polls. Second, as much as the state’s people are steadfast in their adoration of Naveen Patnaik, the party leaders are no longer viewed on such a pedestal. 

There is growing disillusionment with the functioning of the party and functionaries from the state level to the grassroots. The Dhamnagar voters were quite vocal in their dissatisfaction with leading BJD poll managers, including senior party office bearers and ministers, who they alleged to be working against the Bhadrak district’s interests. And the result reflected this. The party may dismiss the bypoll as a sympathy factor outcome but should not overlook the underlying message. It has a big task in hand ahead of 2024.