BJP wins Dhamnagar; first bypoll loss for BJD since 2009

BHUBANESWAR: For the first time since 2009, the BJD has lost a bypoll, a result whose ramifications could be far-reaching as the BJP looks to wrest the state governed by Naveen Patnaik for more than two decades, in the 2024 Lok Sabha and assembly elections. For the record, the BJP retained Dhamnagar seat it had won in 2019, but with a larger margin made possible by former BJD leader and independent candidate Rajendra Das, whose 8,153 votes polled may not be much in terms of percentage, but did enough to split the BJD votes and damage Abanti Das's chances of securing victory for Naveen's party.
Suryabanshi Suraj, whose father Bishnu Charan Sethi's death had prompted the bypoll, got 80,351 votes against Abanti's 70,470, winning by 9,881 votes after results were declared on Sunday. In 2019, Bishnu Charan had defeated Rajendra, who had fought for the BJD, by a margin of 4,625 votes.
While the BJP's vote share in the bypoll has increased by 1% (from 48% in 2019 to 49%), the BJD's voting percentage has dropped from 45% to 43%. The Congress, meanwhile, has gone from bad to worse, with its candidate Baba Harekrushna Sethy getting only 3,561 votes - almost half less than the 7,303 its candidate had got in 2019 - and forfeiting deposit yet again. Though Dhamnagar was a BJP seat and the saffron party has managed to retain it, the victory is significant given that it comes in the backdrop of Union home minister Amit Shah and BJP president J P Nadda's visits to the state in September and October and calling for a BJD-mukt Odisha.
Rebel factor plays crucial role in dashing BJD hopes
In his defeat in the Dhamnagar bypoll, former MLA and independent candidate Rajendra Das tasted success by giving BJD candidate Abanti Das a checkmate.
Rajendra's entry into the Dhamnagar byelection made the contest more crucial and exciting and gave jitters to the BJD, which had until now been maintaining an unbeaten record in all bypolls held after 2009.
Rajendra, who had revolted against Abanti after being denied the party ticket, not only contributed to Abanti's defeat by splitting BJD votes, but also prompted the ruling party to relook its poll management and tactics of playing women empowerment and self-help group cards.
"Rajendra polled 8,153 votes, causing a big split of BJD votes. This helped BJP candidate Suryabanshi Suraj to make his votes intact and win the seat by a margin of 9,881. Had Rajendra been with BJD, the votes he polled would have been safe with the BJD candidate," said Sambit Mahapatra, a senior poll analyst.
Mahapatra said BJD's women card failed to pay dividend because of the dissidence factor. BJD might have won many seats by fielding women candidates and relying on the members of the women self-help groups (SHGs), considered as a strong votebank of the party in all elections. This time, the tactic did not work as the selection of the candidature was wrong. And BJD failed to address the dissidence factor too, he said.
Rajendra had won Dhamnagar on a BJD ticket in 2009. The party denied him a ticket in 2014. Though he was again given a ticket in 2019, some BJD leaders allegedly conspired against him, resulting in his defeat. He was a strong aspirant for BJD ticket for the Dhamnagar byelection.
Rajendra's open rebellion after the party named Abanti as its nominee was seen as a rare sign in BJD that is known for high discipline and better election management than other parties. For the first time, a rebel BJD leader contested against the party candidate in an election. After failing to placate Rajendra, BJD expelled him from the party on October 19.