Next round of rain likely in Tamil Nadu by next week

CHENNAI: The IMD has forecast a low pressure area to form over Bay of Bengal on November 9, which is likely to bring the next round of monsoon rain to coastal Tamil Nadu including Chennai by middle of next week.
For the next two days, IMD has forecast a few spells of rain of moderate intensity accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning over some areas of Chennai and the suburbs. Bloggers said the state may still get good rainfall regardless of the intensity of the weather system.
The next round of monsoon rains may begin by the middle of next week as IMD has forecast a low pressure area to form over Bay of Bengal on November 9.
While this may be the first weather system of the northeast monsoon season this year, private forecasters said the system may not intensify into a cyclone as the ocean and atmospheric conditions are not favourable. Bloggers said the state including Chennai may still get good rainfall irrespective of the intensity of the weather system.
"A low pressure area is likely to form over southwest Bay of Bengal on November 9. Based on the current data, it is likely to move northwestwards towards Tamil Nadu. IMD is monitoring the developments," said P Senthamarai Kannan, director, Regional Weather Forecasting Centre, IMD Chennai.
Officials said this is because of a circulation in the lower part of the upper atmosphere over comorin sea.
For the next two days, IMD has forecast a few spells of rainfall with moderate intensity and accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning over some areas of the city and the suburbs. Skies may be partly cloudy. Maximum and minimum temperatures may be around 31-32 deg C and 24-25 deg C.
Since October 1, Nungambakkam and Meenambakkam weather stations recorded 468.7mm and 386.8mm, which are 96.9mm and 20mm above normal.
Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist, Skymet Weather said the sea conditions and the vertical wind shear, which is the variation of wind direction and speed over vertical distance, are not conducive enough to give the system the energy to intensify into a cyclone. "There are messages and news that it may intensify into a cyclone. But based on the present conditions, the system could only intensify into a well-marked low pressure and may move towards north Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh. There may be moderate rainfall and heavy at times between November 9 and 11. So, people need not panic," he said.
Blogger Pradeep John said while Global Forecast System (GFS), a global weather model, forecasts the system to intensify into a cyclone and bring rain to north Tamil Nadu, another model the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast a weak system that may bring rainfall to entire Tamil Nadu. "Whether it is a cyclone or a weak system, we will still get good rainfall," he said.