PremiumThe world's biggest climate conference is set to begin today in Egypt--the COP27 on Sunday. Deadly extreme weather events have struck almost every corner of the planet in recent months, reminding leaders and citizens of the need to act fast. Nearly 200 countries gathering for the UN climate conference in Egypt are expected to lock horns over whether rich nations should pay compensation to vulnerable nations hit by climate-fuelled disasters.
Some past COP meetings have resulted in landmark agreements that shaped humanity's fight against climate change. In 1997, signatories of the Kyoto Protocol acknowledged that the planet was warming because of manmade greenhouse gas emissions and committed to reducing them. In 2015, global leaders agreed under the Paris Agreement to make the necessary emissions cuts to keep global temperatures below a 2C increase by the end of the century, and ideally close to 1.5C.
However, COP27 is unlikely to land a historic deal in that fashion. It instead aims to turn past commitments into reality.
Developing countries and emerging economies have proposed putting loss and damage on the summit agenda, which must be adopted unanimously before the talks get underway.
In the United Nations, the phrase "Loss and Damage" refers to costs already being incurred from climate-fuelled weather extremes or impacts, like rising sea levels.
A June report by 55 vulnerable countries estimated their combined climate-linked losses over the last two decades totalled about $525 billion, or about 20% of their collective GDP. Some research suggests that by 2030 such losses could reach $580 billion per year.
Frustrated by difficulties and delays in securing climate finance, developing and emerging economies are now united in demanding that a loss and damage fund be established at COP27. Among them are island states like the Maldives and Jamaica, and China.
Countries have made different proposals for what the fund should look like. Even if COP27 yields a deal to form a fund, it could still take a couple of years before it is ready to disperse money.
The European Union has suggested harnessing existing international funds to tackle loss and damage, rather than launching a new one, but some experts say issues like long delays make those funds unsuitable for addressing loss and damage.
Over 100 heads of state and government will descend into Sharm el-Sheikh for the conference.
Day 1 is expected to be dominated by an agenda fight over a key bit of climate jargon: loss and damage.
Rich countries have repeatedly failed to live up to a pledge to provide $100 billion of climate finance annually — a goal that is already seen as woefully insufficient to cover poorer countries’ needs.
UN climate summits have tended to focus on the responsibilities the richest owe to the poorest, often leaving out one key demographic that will be crucial to transition: coal-reliant middle-income countries. Indonesia could announce its own Just Energy Transition Partnership alongside donors like the US and the EU at the Group of 20 meeting in Bali, which runs during the second week of COP27. Similar deals with Vietnam and Senegal are in the pipeline before the end of the year, while one with India is slated for 2023.
One COP after delegations agreed on rules or a global carbon market under the Paris Agreement, negotiators at COP27 will need to establish strict guidelines to ensure the credits used in the global carbon market represent real emissions reductions. The current agreement allows for the trading of old carbon credits that don’t necessarily reduce emissions.
Countries can update their climate commitments any time under the Paris Agreement, and many committed to doing so at COP26 in Glasgow. Last year, India unexpectedly set a net-zero emissions target for 2070.
Since its unveiling last year, the Global Methane Pledge — a commitment to cut emissions of one of the most potent greenhouse gases by 30% by the end of the decade — has garnered more than 120 signatures. China and India are the main absentees, but there is hope that the former may still announce its methane-cutting plan during COP27.
Negotiations at COP27 will be highly technical, with delegates likely to spend hours fighting over commas and wording. But diplomats will need to keep in mind that, despite recent progress, the world is still on track to warm above the 2C target set by the Paris Agreement. The latest research forecasts warming between 2.1C and 2.9C by the end of the century and scientists warn the window to act is closing fast.
Traditionally, mass protests by climate activists have brought the voice of global citizens to an otherwise dull and secluded gathering. This time might be different, with activists reporting unprecedented difficulties and unaffordable costs to arrive in Sharm el-Sheikh.
Prominent Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El-Fattah, who is currently in jail and started a hunger strike last April, is most likely to lead the protest. Abd El-Fattah has vowed to stop drinking water on the first day of COP27.