Will IT stocks outperform peers? Sunil Damania's 12 predictions for Samvat 2079

The interest rates have been hiked aggressively by major central banks globally. By next Diwali, the high-base effect will also come into play, he added.

As and when inflation is under control, central banks, including the RBI, will acknowledge that and slash rates.

India’s average crude oil basket last Samvat was $97.14/barrel. Damania expects the world economy to start improving, pushing crude prices slightly higher. Also, an OPEC+ supply cut would move crude oil prices higher.

As the Chinese economy is undergoing structural problems, the economy will find it difficult to grow at even 3%.

The rift started in February 2022 but is unlikely to prolong till next Diwali. "Even if it continues, the market will have conquered its anxiety. No event in the market continues to impact sentiments for 21 months," he added.

On the back of strong FII and FDI flows, the rupee will appreciate from levels of 83 currently to 80 per US dollar.

The expert believes India holds strong economic resilience and has strong potential to generate alpha. FIIs will make a strong comeback and pump in Rs 2 lakh crore in the coming Samvat year.

On the back of an aggressive launch in the EV space, there will be a pick in its sales too and against 25,000 EVs sold in FY22, the expert expects sales of over 1 lakh EVs in the coming Samvat year.

By the next Diwali, the US economy b is expected to post better performance. "The fear of the US recession would have gone by the next Diwali," he noted.

After being the worst performer, the IT pack, given the improving realisations, is seen as the top performing sector in the year ahead.

Last year was highly volatile. But the new Samvat year is not expected to be as volatile. We expect a steady rise in the indices, he noted.
12. 80% probability that indices will be higher than current levels

"The historical trend suggests that in no two years in a row, the markets have declined from one Diwali to another. Therefore, with all negative things priced in, there is a high probability that Sensex will close in the green zone with returns in the teens.

Further, the expert suggests that after investors faced several difficulties last year, it's time to enjoy the gain. And with respect to the best time to enter the market is when there is a whole lot of negative news. Right now, recession, higher inflation and rising interest rates are bothering the market. These factors may not be there next year at the same time. That makes the expert believe that risk-reward is in favour of reward. So he advises investors to brace for the new Samvat year with optimism.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)