Oscar Predictions: Best Director – ‘Triangle of Sadness’ Director Ruben Östlund Could Appeal to the European Voting Bloc

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Nov. 3, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Director

CATEGORY COMMENTARY:

The past few years of directing nominees have yielded an international feature director and/or a lone director (someone who’s nominated but their film is not for best picture). This includes Ryusuke Hamaguchi (“Drive My Car”), Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”), Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”), Alfonso Cuarón (“Roma”) and Pawel Pawlikowski (“Cold War”). In a seemingly open race, you begin to examine who will get the votes of that same demographic that ushered those previous filmmakers into the fold. There are strong arguments to be made for a number of contenders such as South Korean and Cannes winner Park Chan-wook (“Decision to Leave”) or even Alejandro G. Iñárritu (“Bardo”). Ruben Östlund, the writer and director of “Triangle of Sadness” steers a ship (no pun intended) that’s filled with social commentary and genre-bending highlights that could bring him into the fold.

There’s also hope the Directors Branch will be “cool enough” to see the merits of recognizing Gina Prince-Bythewood (“The Woman King”), The Daniels (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) and possibly even Joseph Kosinski (“Top Gun: Maverick”).

I have a gut feeling that Baz Luhrmann’s take on “Elvis” is going to be far more in the conversation than many expect. I can easily foresee the Golden Globes nominating his work.

This category is much more fluid than many think as Steven Spielberg seems to be a solid bet for a nom for his personal portrait “The Fabelmans,” especially with two previous wins for “Schindler’s List” (1993) and “Saving Private Ryan” (1998).

“The Banshees of Inisherin” is performing very well with critics, audiences and Academy members, but we’ve been here before with director Martin McDonagh for “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (2017). He was surprisingly snubbed when the film looked to be in a prime position to win the top prize.

The return of Todd Field after 16 years should be enough to keep him in the discussion for “Tár” while the two consecutive years of women taking home the directing statuette (Jane Campion and Chloe Zhao) should see that trend hoping to continue with Sarah Polley for “Women Talking.”

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