Gold to rebound slightly next year as Fed tightening cycle ends: Reuters poll
Granules of gold and silver are seen in glass jars at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/Files
Gold prices will average US$1,712.50 an ounce next year, rising from current levels, as an end to US interest rate rises is expected to revive investor interest in bullion, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday (Nov 2).
Gold has tumbled from above US$2,000 an ounce in March to around US$1,650 as the US Federal Reserve and other central banks raised interest rates rapidly to tackle inflation.
Higher rates pressured gold by lifting returns on other assets such as government bonds and the dollar that compete with gold for investment.
"We will get a change of direction when the market gets convinced that the Fed will stop raising interest rates," said Frank Schallenberger, head of commodity research at LBBW.
Societe Generale analyst Florent Pele said returns on inflation-adjusted government US bonds were likely to remain positive until at least the third quarter of 2023.
"Amid positive real rates in the US and increasing ones in Europe, investors will likely shy away from non-yielding assets such as gold," he said.
The poll of 39 analysts and traders returned median forecasts for gold to average US$1,660 an ounce in the fourth quarter of this year and US$1,658 in the first quarter of next year.
Respondents have downgraded their forecasts since August, when a similar poll predicted gold would average US$1,745 an ounce in 2023.
Gold is unlikely to fall too far because low prices will encourage more buying in Asia and of jewellery, said independent analyst Ross Norman.
"We would expect to see physical demand to accelerate at around the US$1,550 support level," he said.
For silver, the poll forecast average prices of US$19.10 an ounce in the fourth quarter - down from current levels of around US$19.75 - and US$20 in 2023.
That compares with a prediction of 20.18 for 2023 in the poll three months ago.
Unlike gold, around half of silver demand comes from industry. "The global market slowdown will weigh on silver's industrial demand," said Edward Moya, senior analyst with OANDA.
