Boeing Forecasts China to Need 8,485 Passenger and Freighter Jets Through 2041

(28/10/22)  Boeing has forecast that China’s commercial airplane fleet will more than double over the next 20 years.

According to its 2022 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for China, Boeing predicts that demand for air travel and air freight will continue to trend upwards through 2041, with the country’s commercial fleet growing from around 3,900 airplanes to more than 9,600 through 2041.

The CMO states that China will require 8,485 new airplanes valued at $1.5 trillion to serve passengers and trade.

That significant number of aircraft represents more than a fifth of global airplane deliveries over the next two decades, as Chinese carriers look to replace older airplanes with more fuel-efficient models.

Boeing 737 MAX 7. Picture by Steven Howard of TravelNewsAsia.com

Notably, there will be continued growth in the freighter market, with China’s freighter fleet more than quadrupling in size to more than 800 airplanes through 2041.

“We have full confidence that China’s commercial aviation market will continue to prosper, despite recent economic headwinds, as Boeing celebrates its 50th anniversary in the country,” said Peter Gao, Boeing vice president, Commercial Sales and Marketing, Greater China. “China’s economic fundamentals will continue to fuel the significant demand for both its passenger and cargo fleets.”

The 2022 China CMO includes the following projections through 2041:

- Passenger traffic is expected to grow at 4.9% annually;

- 1,570 widebody airplanes and 6,370 single-aisle airplanes will be needed to support a growing network of international and domestic routes;

- Demand for commercial services to support the rapid and healthy growth of the fleet will be worth $545 billion;

- Freighter segment will see 205 deliveries to meet the requirements of continued e-commerce growth, and a strong industrial supply chain; and

- The country will also require 412,000 new aviation personnel, including 126,000 pilots, 124,000 technicians and 162,000 cabin crew members in the next 20 years.

Commercial Airplanes Deliveries to China (2022-2041)

Regional Jets: 340

Single Aisle: 6,370

Widebody: 1,570

Freighters: 205

Total: 8,485

2022 marks the 50th year of Boeing’s footprint in China. In 1972, China ordered the first ten 707 jets to modernize its commercial fleet and expand its international network. Today, more than 2,000 Boeing airplanes have been delivered to Chinese operators in the past five decades.

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