It is a slow start for Diwali releases with two big-ticket Hindi offerings, Akshay Kumar’s Ram Setu and Ajay Devgn-starrer Thank God, which released on October 25, recording below-par performances at the box office.
The two Bollywood ventures, which were expected to do a combined business of Rs 30 crore, have opened with around Rs 22 crore worth of collections.
While Ram Setu managed to put up a decent first-day show with early estimates suggesting business of Rs 15 crore, Thank God despite the Diwali holiday grossed Rs 7.5 crore on opening day.
Film trade analysts estimate that box office numbers for Hindi films will be 25-30 percent lower this Diwali due to no franchise film releases as seen in previous years including movies like Golmaal 4 (2017), Housefull 4 (2019) and Sooryavanshi (2021).
For the December quarter, the Hindi box office business will be lower due to an average performance of Diwali releases and will see an 18 percent decline versus pre-COVID levels to Rs 990 crore in Q3, said an Elara Capital report.
Dull Diwali
After a weak Q2FY23, particularly for Bollywood’s business, the exhibition industry was pinning its hopes on Diwali to boost box office revenue in the December quarter on the back of a strong release pipeline and no COVID-led uncertainties that affected collections last year during the holiday period.
However, Diwali was subdued this year, said film producer and trade business analyst Girish Johar. “Pre-Diwali celebration started from Sunday (October 23) and this is not conducive for the cinema business. Had Diwali been over weekdays, the weekend business of new releases would have seen strong traction. Also, people are celebrating Diwali in full swing after two years so that will have an impact on collections. Plus, the box office dynamics are fragile currently.”
Things look dull despite a strong line-up of movies, noted analysts and exhibitors. “There are big films releasing this year across languages including Akshay Kumar’s Ram Setu, Thank God in Hindi; Prince, Sardar in Tamil; Ori Devuda, Ginna in Telugu; Monster, Padavettu in Malayalam; Headbush, Gandhada Gudi in Kannada; and Har Har Mahadev in Marathi,” said Gautam Jain, partner at media consulting firm Ormax Media.
Johar said that overall there were 20 new films during the Diwali period out of which seven or eight are big-ticket ventures along with Hollywood film Black Adam, which released pre-Diwali on October 20.
While Black Adam is faring well with over Rs 23 crore of business in four days, advance bookings of new Hindi releases were slow.
Ram Setu and Thank God are expected to do lifetime business of Rs 80 crore and Rs 60 crore, respectively, according to trade analysts, which they say is sub-par when compared to films released during pre-COVID Diwali when movies did business in the range of Rs 190-200 crore.
Despite capacity restrictions in cinema halls last year due to COVID, Akshay Kumar’s big offering Sooryavanshi managed to collect around Rs 195 crore. However, this year the two Hindi films reaching the Rs 100-crore target would be a tall ask, said Nitin Menon, co-founder of NV Capital.
“Diwali, Eid, Independence Day and Christmas have always been good for Hindi movies pre-COVID and it was a given that movies would hit the Rs 100-crore mark during these festive times. This is the first time that we cannot say with certainty that new releases will hit the hundred-crore number, especially in Diwali,” he added.
An exhibitor, who didn’t wish to be named, expects Diwali footfall to be around 5-6 lakh in his cinema chain. “A total of 13 lakh footfalls will be recorded in October at 40 percent occupancy. It will be lower than pre-COVID times when occupancy during Diwali would start from 50 percent and go as high as 80 percent.”
Although no fireworks are expected at the box office this Diwali, INOX Leisure’s chief programming officer Rajender Singh Jyala expects the festive period to boost Bollywood’s business, especially off a low base.
Hindi films during the September quarter saw a 47 percent decline in box office business versus pre-COVID levels due to a weak performance of films like Laal Singh Chaddha, Shamshera, Raksha Bandhan, Liger and Ek Villain Returns.
“Diwali is one of the biggest box office windows so we expect it to turn things around for Bollywood which saw a weak Q2,” said Johar.