Rozgar mela admission of India’s job crisis

Lack of employment opportunities is a serious problem in India. The government’s recent Rozgar Mela initiative, which promises to offer 10 lakh jobs, is an oblique admission of this situation. The Rozgar Mela launched by the prime minister promises 10 lakh jobs—the nature of which we are not yet entirely sure about. Some of them will be government jobs, it seems. Of course, the Central government can go on a hiring spree as it recently admitted that around 10 lakh posts in various Central government departments were lying vacant. The Rozgar Mela will most likely see BJP-ruled states also taking part and filling up some vacancies in state departments. The government has long remained in denial mode on the issue of employment and the quality of jobs. When posed this question, it kept claiming that start-ups and the gig economy were creating millions of jobs. This claim has been belied by various job surveys—both government and private sector. 

The riots early this year in various parts of UP and Bihar—where railways job aspirants went on a rampage over changes in the pattern of the exams—and the recent scenes during UP PET exams, for which 37 lakh aspirants had applied for a handful of jobs, shows a different picture than what the government has been trying to paint. 

Yes, start-ups are creating jobs, but many of them have disrupted existing businesses, making several old business establishments redundant. So, a lot of people who were employed elsewhere are joining the now famously known gig economy. CMIE data in October shows the unemployment rate again 
inching towards 8% after falling below 6.43% in September 2022. Rural unemployment above 8% suggests non-farm jobs are still fewer and far between. In the past year, the unemployment rate has been above 7% in eight of the past 12 months. The government’s own periodic labour force data suggests that labour force participation has been consistently below 50% for quite some time.

More worrying is the fact that India’s long-term growth prospects do not look as bright as some would want you to believe. More and more analysts and economists are now seeing 6–6.5% in the long run, rather than 7%. A decade or so ago, analysts and economic commentators would say if India grows at anything below 8%, it would be a demographic disaster. Let’s hope we are not in for a demographic shock.